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Iran’s threat to close a key Red Sea shipping route has raised concerns of further disruptions in global trade.
Iran has already impacted the Strait of Hormuz by restricting the passage of vessels through the Persian Gulf. It is now threatening to disrupt trade from the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which links the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, all the way to the Suez Canal.
Iran has also warned that if the US military establishes a presence on land, it may open “other fronts.”
“Bab al-Mandab Strait is considered one of the world’s most strategic waterways and Iran has both the desire and capacity to put it at risk,” Tasnim, an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-affiliated source, quoted a military informant as saying.
Iran warned that if the US attacks Kharg Island, a key oil terminal, it would cause disruptions at Bab al-Mandab. Earlier, former US President Donald Trump had indicated plans to control Iranian oil and occupy Kharg Island.
Why Bab al-Mandab Is Important
The Bab al-Mandab Strait lies between Yemen on the Arabian coast of the Red Sea and Djibouti and Eritrea in Africa. Ships traveling from the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Aden to the Suez Canal must pass through this route.
The strait is approximately 115 kilometers long and 36 kilometers wide. Since the opening of the Suez Canal in 1869, it has been the shortest maritime route between Europe and Asia and remains vital to global trade.
The Red Sea corridor is currently one of the busiest in the world, with about a quarter of global maritime traffic passing through it.
Due to frequent closures at the Strait of Hormuz caused by conflicts, the Bab al-Mandab Strait carries around 20% of the world’s oil shipments. If it were shut down, global oil transportation would be further impacted by 12%.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, Middle Eastern and Asian countries export nearly 500,000 barrels of oil daily through this passage heading westward.
Additionally, about 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments pass through this route.
With disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea’s strategic role has grown stronger. Saudi Arabia uses Bab al-Mandab as a transit path for its oil through the Yanbu port and also transports millions of barrels via pipelines in its eastern regions.
Beyond oil and gas, this waterway is a key commercial link between East and West, with dozens of cargo ships traveling daily.
Image source, Suez Canal Authority via European Pressphoto Agency
When the Panamanian-flagged Evergreen container ship blocked the Suez Canal in 2021, it caused a major global supply disruption that delayed shipments and raised prices. A similar blockade in Bab al-Mandab could have equally severe consequences.
The Role of the Houthis
Any potential attacks on Bab al-Mandab are expected to be carried out by the Iranian-backed Houthi political and military groups based in Yemen.
Speaking to Reuters under condition of anonymity, a Houthi leader said their group was “militarily prepared” to target Bab al-Mandab with Iran’s support.
On March 28 of this year, the Houthis launched an attack on Israel—their first involvement in the US-Israeli conflict. Israel reported intercepting two missiles launched from Yemen.
The group controls the Red Sea coastal areas of Yemen and has previously targeted Bab al-Mandab during the Gaza conflict. More than 100 commercial vessels have been attacked with missiles and drones by the Houthis, resulting in the sinking of two ships and the deaths of four crew members.
Image source, Houthi Military Media via Reuters
In November 2023, the Houthis hijacked a Japanese-operated, British-owned cargo ship in the Red Sea using helicopters.
Although the Houthis claimed to target only vessels connected to Israel, these attacks were widely viewed as indiscriminate, leading major global shipping and oil companies to suspend traffic in the region.
The situation eventually calmed after US claims of Houthi surrender and their denial, but experts warn that tensions could escalate again.
“If the conflict prolongs, there has always been a possibility of Houthi involvement,” says a senior international correspondent.
He adds, “So far, the Houthis, who dominate northwest Yemen, have not caused any significant obstruction in the Bab al-Mandab Strait.”
On February 26, the US Maritime Administration issued a notice stating: “Following the October 2025 ceasefire between Israel and Gaza, the Houthi terrorist group has not attacked commercial vessels, but risks to merchant ships and US assets in the region persist.”
Pressure on Global Shipping
Image source, Getty Images
The Arabic name Bab al-Mandab means “Gate of Tears” or “Gate of Sorrow,” reflecting the perilous conditions here—including storms, unpredictable weather, piracy, and conflict.
Between 2008 and 2012, there were numerous maritime attacks in and around this passage, particularly hijackings by Somali groups demanding ransom.
These incidents prompted international communities and shipping companies to strengthen security measures in the area.
If Bab al-Mandab closes, it would deepen the energy market crisis already challenged by the Strait of Hormuz issues.
During prior disruptions on Gulf land routes, Brent crude oil prices surged from about $70 to $115 per barrel.
From consumer goods to agricultural products, global trade has already been impacted. Further problems on another maritime route could drive prices higher and cause serious economic consequences in the conflict with Iran.
