KP Sharma Oli: How Feasible Is It to Oust the UML Chairman Just Like Sher Bahadur Deuba in Congress?
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Initial efforts to remove KP Sharma Oli from the chairmanship of the CPN-UML have created significant waves within the party.
Leaders from the founding faction are reportedly preparing to bid farewell to Oli’s leadership. According to them, two solutions remain: either Oli leaves the position respectfully or is ousted in a humiliating manner.
Some leaders aligned with Oli suspect efforts to remove him from the party chairmanship resemble what happened to Sher Bahadur Deuba in the Congress party. Another leader counters, saying that while attempts were made to take advantage of Oli being imprisoned at the district level, it is not possible to remove him like Deuba.
In the general convention held in Mangsir, Oli was re-elected chairman with overwhelming public support. The results also showed the majority of other office bearers and central committee members backing him.
However, within just four months after the convention, UML cadres began pressuring for Oli’s removal from the chairmanship.
‘Oli’s Continuity Means the Dissolution of UML’
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The call for leadership change is especially championed by younger leaders. Many central leaders also appear to be in agreement.
Former minister and UML leader Karn Bahadur Thapa says the current state of affairs has proven that UML cannot move forward under the status quo. Therefore, a respectful farewell for Oli is seen as the appropriate path.
“If Oli insists on not stepping down under any circumstances, party bylaws allow action to be taken. Discussions and dialogues are underway. Keeping Oli in leadership before the next general convention equates to welcoming the dissolution of the UML,” he states.
“The entire communist movement is on the brink of ending, and with previous contributions exhausted, it is impossible for UML to progress under Oli’s leadership.”
Leaders on the founding side consider a special general convention as a last resort. There is a preference not to proceed to this process if Oli agrees to resign voluntarily.
There is a trend to put pressure on Oli personally or through various committees to compel him to step down.
“If he is ready to resign, there are options to move forward with consensus at the national assembly,” leader Thapa says.
Internal Party Dynamics
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The UML Central Committee is said to still have a majority loyal to Oli.
However, if Oli refuses to resign, two-thirds of the UML district committees or the majority of delegates at the national general convention can demand a special general convention.
The UML bylaws require the Central Committee to organize such a special general convention.
According to Thapa, if the Central Committee rejects the demand, those who made the demand can hold the special general convention themselves.
In the general convention held four months ago, out of a total of 2,227 votes, Oli received 1,664 votes while his opponent Ishwar Pokhrel obtained 564.
Even after winning such a significant majority, has the arithmetic shifted enough to gather a majority to remove Oli? According to Karn Bahadur Thapa, indications of this were visible during a party secretariat meeting.
“Reportedly, during the secretariat meeting, independent thinking freed from factional biases is emerging,” he noted.
“Nationwide, at the party level, the situation of change or dissolution has arisen. Many believe that previous agreements or appeals will not resolve the current problems.”
Attempts to Remove Oli Like Deuba?
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In Congress, Deuba was ousted through a special general convention. Since the Central Committee did not call for such a convention, its delegates organized one themselves and selected new leadership.
According to Sherdhan Rai, the UML Secretary close to Oli, attempts to remove the leadership in UML are occurring similarly to Congress. He said, “Deuba was ousted under the guise of a special general convention after being assaulted during the Jan Andolan II movement.”
Rai alleges that internal party affairs are debated on the streets and social media rather than in committees, and the special general convention process is against party rules and procedures. He cautions against deciding based on street sentiments.
He argues that using Oli’s arrest as an excuse to organize a special convention is not feasible within UML.
“Unlike Sher Bahadur Deuba in Congress, whose leadership was removed from the streets, there is no situation where UML leadership will be seized from Oli’s hands through such means,” Rai said.
Although attempts have been made to exploit Oli’s arrest to remove him, leader Thapa says the issue has been approached with sensitivity, respect, and consideration of the party’s interest without public controversy.
After Oli’s arrest, he handed over acting responsibilities to Vice Chairman Ram Bahadur Thapa, who was also appointed parliamentary party leader.
However, Thapa’s speech at the first House of Representatives meeting on Chaitra 19 was controversial within the party. He suggested that various institutions including the Nepali Army and bureaucracy were involved in producing election results favorable to the Rastriya Swatantra Party.
The following day, the UML secretariat held a clarifying meeting regarding his remarks.
The meeting seriously considered Thapa’s speech, affirming the party’s commitment to maintaining friendly relations with the Nepali Army, all governmental security agencies, and the international community.
Is Dissolving All Committees an Option?
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Founding faction leaders are conducting a serious review of UML’s current election results.
UML Secretary Sherdhan Rai said, “The current phase involves extensive review of both internal and external factors, after which a new path for reform will be identified.”
“Leadership change may occur, or all committees may be dissolved to elect new ones,” Rai added.
However, he emphasized that replacing a single person will not solve the problems.
Hence, the party intends to pursue a course of dialogue, debate, and review, improving policies, principles, practices, and leadership.
There has also been discussion about the government investigating past corruption and irregularities, some involving Oli’s name.
After the arrest related to the events of Bhadra 23, some leaders fear Oli’s detention period might be extended.
It is speculated that if this situation arises, Oli might signal willingness to resign from his post.
Though the government appears to be attempting to remove Oli through various cases, leader Thapa emphasized that the matter is being approached with human sensitivity, respect, and in the interest of the party.
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