March 20, Paris – The ongoing tension in the Middle East appears to have entered a decisive phase. Following the failure of talks between the US and Iran, military pressure, rising oil prices, and increasing regional conflicts have intensified, heightening the risk of war. US President Donald Trump stated that whether or not there is a deal with Iran makes no difference to him. Speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland after returning from Florida, he said, “Even if there is no agreement with Iran, the US will remain firm in its strategy.”
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts appear weakened as talks held over the weekend in Pakistan ended without conclusion. Amid rising tension, the US military announced that it will implement a blockade on Iranian Gulf ports starting Monday. According to US Central Command, ships moving to and from Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz will be subject to surveillance and control. Despite the escalation, it was clarified that the free movement of vessels from other countries will not be hindered. This strategic chokepoint, responsible for nearly one-fifth of global oil supply, is expected to see increased instability in world markets as a result of this move.
Iran rejected this step, responding sternly. The Revolutionary Guards claimed full control over the Hormuz area and warned of a strong response to any provocative action. The head of the Iranian Navy labeled the US move as “ridiculous” and stated that their forces are monitoring all activities in the region. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared that the country will not succumb to pressure, saying, “If war is imposed on us, we will fight, and if dialogue resumes, we will proceed accordingly.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that the talks were ‘just an inch away’ from an agreement but accused the US of not changing its stance at the last moment.
Meanwhile, the direct impact of the tensions is evident in energy markets. The price of US crude oil exceeded $100 per barrel annually, and Brent crude prices have surged sharply on international markets. Analysts attributed the price rise to the risk posed by disruptions in the Gulf region, which could cause supply instability.
At the regional level, there are no signs of the conflict abating. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam indicated that efforts to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict are ongoing. He noted work is being done to facilitate the return of Israeli forces, free prisoners, and reconstruct destroyed infrastructure. However, Israel signaled the continuation of its military actions. During a visit to southern Lebanon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged that the threat from Hezbollah is under control but admitted that “war is still ongoing within the security zone.”
The UN peacekeeping mission, UNIFIL, reported that Israeli tanks twice collided with their vehicles, blocking several roads in southern Lebanon, raising international concerns. Lebanon’s health ministry confirmed that at least five people have died in recent attacks, bringing the total death toll to 2,055. Israel reiterated its refusal to extend the currently enforced ceasefire to Lebanon and emphasized continuing operations against Hezbollah.
