It is believed that the United States is engaging in talks for a second phase of ceasefire negotiations with Iran. Despite a 20-hour meeting last Sunday that yielded no conclusions, a ceasefire has held for two weeks. The day after the inconclusive talks, President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz targeting Iran. How should this initial failure in talks be understood, and what are the prospects for future negotiations? Are Iran and the US moving toward a controlled conflict or an uncontrollable full-scale war? Below are four potential scenarios discussed.
1. A Weak Ceasefire as a “Strategic Move”
The ceasefire established after several weeks of fighting demonstrated both sides’ desire to control the crisis. However, from the beginning, there were divisions over its terms, geographic scope, and the areas covered by the ceasefire. Some analysts interpret violations of the ceasefire not as signs of a durable agreement but rather as a strategic pause imposed on the conflict. “When the fighting began, the possibility of agreement was virtually nonexistent,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior researcher at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “These are all principles, positions, and policies over which the US and Iran have long disagreed. The war immediately did not reduce those differences; in fact, it intensified them,” he told BBC News Persian.
2. “Proxy War”
Another likely scenario—perhaps the most probable—is a return to “controlled fighting.” This would mean that neither side engages in full-scale war but does not entirely halt military actions. Limited attacks focused on infrastructure, military targets, and supply lines could continue. In such a scenario, the role of proxy groups becomes significant. Iran-backed groups near Iraq and other borders may increase their activities. While the intensity of direct combat may not grow, the geographic scope of the conflict could expand.
3. Quiet Diplomatic Continuity
Following the failure of the Pakistan-hosted talks, diplomatic efforts cannot be concluded as dead or completely halted. Since Pakistan facilitated the dialogue, it may continue exchanging messages between Tehran and Washington to maintain diplomatic engagement in the coming days.
4. Continuation of the Naval Blockade
The US President has ordered the US Navy to block ship movement through the Strait of Hormuz and impose a blockade on Iran. This move aims to shut down Iran’s oil trade, dealing a significant blow to its economy, while also placing pressure on China, a major buyer of Iranian oil.
Ultimately, these scenarios could produce a zone of blurred lines between war and peace. The failure of the Pakistan talks does not signify a diplomatic end nor the inevitability of an extended war. Instead, it signals a continuation of an ambiguous status quo.
