Has Iran Gained the Upper Hand?

April 20, Kathmandu – Multiple ceasefires are currently in place across West Asia, resulting in notable peace in two key areas. Does this increase the possibility of achieving two historic successes? Both ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon remain fragile. Although there has been some reduction in conflict, both opportunities and risks have emerged.

At first glance, the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, initiated Thursday night, is considered a success for Iran. The Iranian government had demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon, making it a precondition for negotiations with the United States.

Last week, after extensive discussions in Islamabad, it became clear that negotiations could not move forward as long as conflict persisted in Lebanon. During this period, Israel refrained from further attacks on Beirut. Both Iran and Pakistan insisted on involving Lebanon in the talks, which has now been accomplished, although this has displeased many residents living near the northern border of Israel.

It is understood that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leaned toward the ceasefire under American pressure, requiring assurances that Hezbollah would not launch missiles again. Some Israelis view the ceasefire as benefiting Iran, giving it the opportunity to influence the course of events involving its largest adversary.

Shirit Avitan Cohen of the right-wing publication “Israel Hayom” wrote, “This ceasefire legitimizes Israel’s recognition that a military relationship between Iran and Lebanon exists and must be acknowledged, something Israel had sought to avoid.”

Hezbollah has also recognized that it and its patron Iran maintain control over the region and will dictate future developments themselves.

As a result, all parties involved in the dispute have gained something from this agreement.

Major Obstacles on the Path to Agreement

This ceasefire is seen as a victory for both U.S. President Donald Trump and the Iranian leadership.

Netanyahu can demonstrate that Israeli forces remain in southern Lebanon, while Lebanon, after prolonged efforts, has secured an opportunity for direct talks with Israel.

Hezbollah has committed to adhering to the ceasefire, yet continues to issue warnings about being “ready to pull the trigger.” It neither admits defeat nor is willing to disarm.

Senior Hezbollah leader Wafiq Safa said, “There will be no proper ceasefire until the Israeli army withdraws, prisoners are released, displaced persons return, and reconstruction is completed. Until then, weapons discussions cannot proceed.”

Lina Khatib of the London-based Chatham House research center explained, “This ceasefire opens a path for direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, but many challenges remain on the road to a peace agreement.”

She added, “The issues involve border demarcation, Hezbollah’s disarmament, and Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanese territory.” Israel and Lebanon have been in a state of war since 1948 and have no diplomatic relations.

According to Khatib, this week’s direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington have initiated Lebanon’s process of moving away from Iranian influence.

In her words, “The regional power balance is shifting away from Iran; Lebanon can no longer be used as a bargaining chip.”

However, much remains dependent on diplomatic processes between the U.S. and Iran. Should another round of talks occur in Islamabad, U.S. efforts to curb Iran’s regional behavior will continue. Both the U.S. and Israel consider this a serious threat.

For Israel in particular, it is essential to reduce Iranian support to Hezbollah, Hamas, and Yemen’s Houthis, as this “axis of resistance” has posed a persistent challenge to the Jewish state for decades.

What Does Iran Want?

Iran aims to maintain its regional influence and is unlikely to relinquish it quickly. However, it faces substantial challenges, notably concerning its nuclear program and the future of the Strait of Hormuz, both requiring serious negotiations.

Trump has consistently claimed to be in control of the situation and asserted that a deal with Iran was imminent. He stated that Iran had already agreed to transfer about 440 kilograms of “highly enriched uranium,” which he calls “nuclear dust.” This uranium was reportedly destroyed in a bombing last year in Isfahan.

However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Ismail Bakai, rejected this claim, stating, “There is no plan to hand over uranium to America.”

“For us, uranium is as sacred as our land, and we will never send it abroad.”

Iran will have to pledge never to develop nuclear weapons and determine the duration of uranium enrichment allowed under any agreement.

Another critical weapon is Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran seeks new legal regulations governing this waterway, which would formalize control beyond the current status.

In cooperation with Oman, Iran wants to recognize the rights of ships navigating the Gulf.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi welcomed the ceasefire in Lebanon and stated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open throughout the ceasefire period.

However, he also stipulated that vessels must adhere to the coordinated route announced by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization.

This route suggests a path north of the previously used routes and closer to Iran’s mainland.

What’s the Benefit of a Hasty Agreement?

It remains to be seen whether the ceasefire will lead to the quick release of ships trapped in the Gulf. Trump has declared the Strait of Hormuz “fully open and ready for all kinds of navigation.” The market has reacted positively, but ship captains may remain cautious.

Trump has also confirmed that U.S. sanctions on Iran will continue. Despite these positive developments, the road ahead for negotiators remains long.

The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement with Iran took nearly 20 months to finalize and focused solely on the nuclear issue. This deal collapsed after Trump withdrew the U.S. in 2018.

Trump aims to portray himself as a dealmaker, but questions remain on what has been achieved through such agreements. Meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2018-19 also failed to yield concrete results, with North Korea continuing its nuclear program.

Nevertheless, after six weeks of stalemate, the diplomatic process has resumed, and the ceasefire in Lebanon has reinforced it.
Will this be enough to prevent future wars? Even Trump cannot say for sure.