News Summary
Reviewed.
- In the spring of 2024, Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles for the first time directly targeting Israeli territory, which were intercepted by US, British, French, and Jordanian forces.
- In retaliation to US-Israeli attacks, Iran struck Gulf states’ airports, ports, and oil refineries, also closing the Strait of Hormuz.
- Gulf states are diversifying their US security partnerships by signing new defense agreements with Turkey, South Korea, Ukraine, Japan, and the UK, signaling their unwillingness to accept Israeli regional dominance.
In the spring of 2024, Iran directly attacked Israeli territory for the first time by launching over 300 drones and missiles against its adversaries. These attacks were swiftly intercepted by American, British, French, and Jordanian forces. This incident sent a clear message to the Gulf states: when Iran attacks Israel, there will be immediate collective retaliation led by the US. But a challenging question arose—what happens if Iran targets the Gulf states themselves?
That question began to be answered on February 28 when, in response to American and Israeli strikes, Iran attacked airports, ports, oil refineries, and water infrastructure in Arab Gulf nations and closed the Strait of Hormuz. This action halted exports from Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, while severely disrupting trade in Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Though the US military helped intercept some of these attacks, the events inflicted significant damage on regional commerce and security credibility. Iran’s clear objective was to strike the security architecture that enabled US-Israeli military operations in the area.
For decades, Gulf states maintained neutrality in their conflicts with Iran while sustaining security partnerships with the United States. However, the current situation has prompted them to reassess these strategies and signals their rejection of a security framework dominated by Israeli regional hegemony.
For American and Israeli leaders, a security framework where Israel holds decisive military superiority in the region and asserts dominance over neighbors seemed logical. Gulf Arab states planned to cooperate with Israel against Iran’s nuclear program and its destabilizing proxies.
But the ongoing war reveals that Israeli ambitions to consolidate regional dominance are placing Gulf states at risk. Israel appears ready to engage in aggressive warfare, disregarding neighboring interests. Many Gulf leaders now seek alternative measures to ensure their security, diversifying arms supplies and partnerships while enhancing diplomatic and military coordination.
A Shared Enemy of a Shared Foe
For a long time, Gulf Arab states have agreed to formally recognize Israel only after the return of Palestinian territories. Some have normalized relations with Israel in the past decade, but none have embraced Israeli hegemonic ambitions in any capacity.
Israel’s military campaign in Gaza has killed over 70,000 Palestinians and moved to annex the West Bank. These actions have weakened Israel’s regional standing. Gulf leaders find that their interests in this war do not align with Israel’s.
Although Gulf nations have sought diplomatic solutions to counter US attacks on Iran, once hostilities began, Iran targeted Gulf countries directly. This made clear that Gulf states cannot abandon American military presence and remain neutral.
The conflict has divided Gulf countries into three groups: Oman leans towards restraint and balance; the UAE, after failed efforts to improve relations with Iran, has adopted a tougher security stance; while other countries take moderate or mixed approaches.
Overall, Gulf states harbor strong distrust towards Iran, fueled by instability orchestrated by Iran’s proxies in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, as well as recent attacks within the Gulf region.
Towards Multipolarity
Iran’s attacks may catalyze Gulf states to overcome internal differences and establish independent security architectures. While they have relied heavily on US defense ties for decades, they are now seeking diversification.
Gulf states are pursuing alternative arms sources from Turkey, South Korea, Ukraine, Japan, and the UK to reduce dependency on the United States. Europe is also preparing to become a reliable partner.
They hope to expand economic and technological agreements with China, though they remain cautious about military guarantees. This diplomatic flexibility aims to strengthen their position.
The Gulf Club
Gulf nations recognize the need to enhance mutual defense cooperation, including coordinated air defense systems, shared early-warning mechanisms, and integration of anti-drone technologies. Despite having the Gulf Cooperation Council, inter-member rivalries hamper defense integration.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are developing domestic defense industries, yet during the current conflict, Gulf countries faced shortages of interceptor missiles, underscoring the necessity of developing indigenous capabilities.
Washington holds the belief that the security relationship between Gulf states and Israel is complementary and that normalization promotes regional stability; however, recent events have challenged this assumption.
There is a profound disconnect between Netanyahu’s regional vision and the aspirations of Arab Gulf states. These countries desire a security framework that safeguards their sovereign interests without falling under Israeli or Iranian dominance.
From Foreign Affairs
