Image source, Getty Images
Both the United States and Iran have signaled that they do not want to return to a state of war following the ceasefire announced on April 8.
Despite ongoing clashes between both sides’ forces, mediation efforts led by Pakistan, Qatar, and other countries have not failed.
The US Navy and Air Force remain capable of launching attacks against Iran if necessary.
Miscalculations
It is estimated that Iranian authorities have placed their security forces on high alert. They appear to be using the ceasefire period to rebuild and restructure following damage caused by the US and Israel.
The armed tensions around the Gulf region risk creating misunderstandings and miscalculations on both sides.
The United States is pressuring Tehran’s leadership to reach an agreement, highlighting the proximity and potential scale of damage it could inflict.
Iran is signaling that its capacity for resistance remains strong and has warned of attacking US bases located in Arab countries if necessary.
A long and potentially unsuccessful major agreement between the US and Iran relates to maintaining the ceasefire and agreeing on further negotiations.
Reaching this stage has become increasingly complicated.
The Iranians are demanding some easing of the sanctions imposed on the Strait of Hormuz operations or the release of frozen assets, which has become a critical issue.
The strategically vital Strait of Hormuz is nearly closed, with only minimal maritime traffic passing through. After an attack by the US and Israel on February 28, Iran effectively shut down the route.
Image source, Reuters
Saudi Arabia has rerouted some oil shipments to Red Sea ports, while the pipeline to the United Arab Emirates has been redirected toward Oman’s Gulf coast, which lies south of the Strait of Hormuz.
Nonetheless, the world has lost about 20% of its regular oil and gas supply, impacting other crucial sources.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz constitutes a major crisis for the global economy. While the US is not dependent on Gulf oil, global oil prices are affected by these disruptions.
Trump’s Major Blunder
Donald Trump finds himself in a dilemma. His grave error in underestimating the complexity of war has placed him under significant pressure.
President Trump and his close ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ignored how prepared Iran’s Islamic regime was to counter an assault.
Trump is not in a position to exit easily, and the Iranian leadership wants to maintain this status quo.
The Strait of Hormuz must be reopened. War against Iran is unpopular in the US, and reigniting the conflict could increase public outrage.
Even staunch Republicans in Trump’s party are willing to consider some concessions Iran demands to keep the Strait of Hormuz operational.
Moreover, Trump’s aspiration to demonstrate victory in the conflict poses an additional challenge.
Image source, EPA
Trump does not want to accept any Iran deal perceived as weaker than the one under Barack Obama in 2015.
He abandoned the Obama-era agreement directives during his first term in the White House.
Iranian leaders are believed to be fighting for the survival of their regime.
Whether supported by Israel or not, it appears unlikely that additional US attacks would defeat them.
What Comes Next?
Gulf Arab states, enriched by oil, have suffered long-term damage and do not desire further conflict.
The Gulf region’s long-term development depends on its role as a stable center of the global economy and a secure destination for foreign investment.
The war has severely disrupted this stability, and it will take years for the environment to normalize.
Diplomatic efforts to restart talks are being fully supported by Qatar and Pakistan as mediators.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are adopting two distinct approaches towards Iran.
The UAE has expanded its strategic relationship with Israel, which has deployed its Iron Dome missile system and troops in the Emirates.
Saudi Arabia has publicly stated it retaliated against an Iranian attack, but senior Saudi sources clarified this was their own initiative, not part of the US-Israel alliance.
When war began with Iran, both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu claimed to possess air power sufficient to defeat Tehran’s regime.
However, they were proven wrong.
Continuous conflict, sanctions, and isolation failed to break the character of this regime that has existed for nearly half a century.
Currently, not only the US and Israel but the rest of the world are experiencing the consequences.
