Image Source, RSS
The World Meteorological Organization has indicated that a special seasonal phenomenon called El Niño is expected to start within the next few weeks, bringing abnormal weather across many parts of the world.
According to analyses by meteorological agencies of several countries, this year’s El Niño could be the strongest ever recorded, also referred to as a Super El Niño.
El Niño conditions develop when the surface temperature of the central Pacific Ocean rises slightly.
Projections suggest that in Nepal and throughout South Asia, El Niño may weaken the onset of the monsoon season.
How Will It Affect Nepal?
Dr. Deepak Aryal, professor at Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, explained that El Niño will have various impacts on Nepal’s monsoon.
“There may be reduced rainfall during the early monsoon phase (June-July), but some areas might experience increased rainfall thereafter,” he said.
After analyzing El Niño, Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, the government’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology forecasts a somewhat weaker monsoon this year.
Additionally, maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be above average across the country.
“Generally, rainfall is predicted to be slightly below average this year,” said department spokesperson Bibhuti Pokharel.
“However, some regions may experience increased precipitation due to irregular weather systems, and monsoon breaks could be prolonged,” she added.
Former meteorologist and ex-director general of the department, Kamal Ram Joshi, noted that while El Niño usually causes less rainfall, it does not guarantee a reduction in severe disasters like floods and landslides this year. Sudden heavy rains can still occur during dry spells.
Using last year as an example, he said, “There was a prolonged drought in the Terai region, and then a sudden heavy rainfall occurred in October.” Significant post-Dashain rainfall was also observed across Kathmandu and many other areas of the country this year.
Since weather forecasts are never 100% accurate, experts advise preparedness for all scenarios.
“Reduced rainfall is not inherently positive. It adversely affects agriculture, hydropower, and other sectors, so caution is necessary. The forecasts for the past two years were quite accurate, and last year’s predictions helped minimize damage to life and property,” Professor Aryal emphasized.
Potential Impact on Rice Cultivation
With approximately one-third of Nepal’s total arable land lacking irrigation facilities, farmers largely depend on rainfall.
Monsoon rainfall directly affects Nepal’s staple crop, rice, which significantly contributes to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).
After reduced rainfall in the Terai during last year’s monsoon, rice production decreased by 4%, falling to 5.705 million metric tons.
The Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC) has advised using drought-resistant rice varieties to mitigate possible further declines in production in case of drought next year.
“We have developed various rice seeds that perform well in dry conditions, minimize soil loss when transplanted, and survive sudden flooding,” said NARC Executive Director Srimat Shrestha.
Image Source, RSS
“We are distributing these rice seeds through various seed companies according to local conditions. The yield of these rice varieties is comparable to other types,” Shrestha added.
NARC encourages farmers to adopt drought-tolerant rice varieties and climate-smart dry direct-seeded rice farming to ensure good yields even in low rainfall conditions.
Farmers are also locally adapting to the weather conditions, Shrestha noted.
When Will the Monsoon Arrive?
On average, monsoon typically enters Nepal around June 13 and withdraws by October 2, though this timing is not always precise.
However, this year, monsoon has yet to begin in the southern Indian state of Kerala, which could delay its onset in Nepal, explained department spokesperson Bibhuti Pokharel.
The Indian Meteorological Department’s press release on Tuesday noted that monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala by Thursday. Monsoon typically reaches Nepal a few days after Kerala.
The duration of the monsoon varies annually. For example, in 1979 monsoon entered on June 24 and withdrew 73 days later on September 4, while in 2022 it entered on June 5 and stayed for 134 days, withdrawing on October 16.
Nepal typically receives 1,500 to 1,600 millimeters of rainfall during the monsoon, and approximately 300 millimeters have already been recorded this year before monsoon officially began.
