Efforts to predict the winners of the men’s FIFA World Cup have taken various turns over time. Nowadays, this topic features competition among supercomputers, deeply knowledgeable football enthusiasts, and so-called astrologers. German financial analyst Joachim Kliment, who has garnered attention for correctly forecasting the winners of the past three tournaments, emphasizes the significant roles of luck and chance among top teams. In an interview with BBC Sport, he remarked that a team’s current “form,” a referee’s decisions, or instances like the ball hitting the goalpost or crossbar on a particular day “cannot be predicted with certainty.”
However, a look at history reveals that teams competing for the trophy must consider several key aspects, some of which are quite surprising. Among the 84 countries that have participated in the global football carnival so far, only eight nations have managed to claim the title. These eight champion nations are Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Uruguay. To date, 13 countries have reached the World Cup final, with some teams having experienced multiple final appearances. Germany has played in eight finals, Brazil seven times, while Argentina and Italy have each reached the final six times.
It appears difficult for a new country to become world champion. The last new winner emerged in 2010 when Spain made history. The Netherlands have reached the World Cup final three times but have never won the trophy. Kliment has predicted that the Netherlands will win the 2026 World Cup. In 2002, South Korea became the first Asian team to reach the semifinals, and in 2022, Morocco made history by becoming the first African team to reach the semifinals.
In 2014, Germany became the first European team to win the World Cup on Latin American soil. From the inaugural FIFA World Cup hosted by Uruguay in 1930 to the 2022 tournament held in Qatar, winning the World Cup outside a team’s home continent has been a rare feat. Out of 22 tournaments, this has only happened six times. Brazil won titles outside South America in 1958, 1994, and 2002; Spain achieved this in 2010; Germany in 2014; and Argentina in 2022.
