US President Donald Trump is seriously considering an option to end the conflict with Iran without any formal new nuclear agreement. Should Iran agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US appears ready to withdraw military actions, aiming primarily to maintain global fuel supply and economic stability. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has made clear that the Strait will not be reopened without the removal of the US naval blockade, listing six stringent preconditions.
July 11, Kathmandu – President Trump is exploring a path to end ongoing tensions with Iran without a new formal nuclear agreement. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, if Iran fully reopens the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and facilitates the passage of commercial vessels, Washington would be ready to step back from military operations.
Initially, the Trump administration’s focus was on securing a new agreement that would completely curb Iran’s nuclear program. However, as the conflict prolongs and fuel prices rise in the US market, Washington’s priorities appear to have shifted from seeking military victory towards securing global energy supplies and economic stability. Trump has indicated that talks with Tehran remain open and that the US will continue to intensify economic pressure on Iran. Analysts suggest that with the US midterm elections about six weeks away and rising domestic fuel costs, political pressure is mounting on the Trump administration to resolve the conflict quickly. Trump has also asserted that Iran will not be able to easily redevelop nuclear weapons during his term and hinted that the US may withdraw even without a treaty.
Iran’s Six Demanding Conditions and Blockade of Kharg Island: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has denied any direct talks with the US, emphasizing that the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened without lifting the US naval blockade. According to Mohammad Bagher Jalali, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Iran has presented six rigid conditions for reopening the strait: 1. Permanent end to threats against Iran and its “sacred values.” 2. Cessation of military operations against Iran and its regional allies. 3. Withdrawal of US Navy and Air Force involved in the blockade. 4. Compensation from the US for war damages. 5. Lifting all economic sanctions imposed on Iran. 6. Release of Iranian assets frozen abroad.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appointed former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei, aged 71, as his representative on the National Security Council. Previously, Rezaei described control over the Strait of Hormuz as “more valuable than dozens of nuclear bombs.” According to the international maritime transport agency Windward, due to the US blockade, fuel shipments from Kharg Island—responsible for about 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports—have come to a complete halt. Seventeen ‘dark tankers’ remain anchored with their engines off. Rising fuel prices and diplomatic maneuvering have created uncertainty over reopening the Strait, causing crude oil prices to surge once Asian markets opened.
Brent crude rose by 1.09% to $84.46 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate gained 0.78%, reaching $78.79. Trita Parsi, Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, observes that both sides hardening their stance as they approach a deal is a typical diplomatic tactic. Parsi further explains that the US faces greater time pressure due to the midterm elections, while Iran is prolonging talks to gain additional advantages.
Why Iran Is a Challenging Adversary for the US: Prolonged military engagement with Iran presents significant technical and strategic challenges for the US. According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Iran has over 3,000 ballistic missiles capable of striking targets up to 2,000 kilometers away. These missiles are stored in tunnel systems within mountains, making complete destruction by airstrike impossible. The Strait of Hormuz facilitates roughly 20% of the world’s total maritime oil trade and a substantial portion of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with its northern shore controlled by Iran. Iran has also developed thousands of long-range drones, such as the Shahed series. Through allies like Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and Iraqi Shiite groups, Iran exerts pressure beyond its borders against US interests. Geographically, the narrowest width of the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman is just 21 nautical miles. Following Iran’s declaration of a 12 nautical mile territorial sea in 1959 and Oman’s in 1972, the main channel falls under their legal jurisdiction.
Expert Analysis: Temporary Peace Amid Long-Term Risks Geopolitical specialists have expressed varying views on the potential US strategic shift and the prospect of withdrawal without a nuclear agreement. Alice Wells of the International Crisis Group warns that a US withdrawal without a nuclear deal would yield only a temporary calm, weakening international oversight over Iran’s nuclear activities. Michael Knights of the Washington Institute notes, “Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would bring significant changes to the global energy market. The US focus seems more on economic stability than military victory.” Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution suggests that while the US seeks to limit the war, the absence of a solid agreement leaves long-term risks intact. Wali Nasr from Johns Hopkins University argues that Iran is leveraging its tough conditions to gain greater diplomatic advantage; the Strait of Hormuz is merely a mechanism, with sanctions relief and security guarantees as the core issues. Richard Haass of the Council on Foreign Relations contends that a US withdrawal could alter the Middle East’s power balance and damage allies’ trust in the United States.
