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Monsoon season in Nepal has now reached its midpoint this year. Authorities have reported that rainfall so far amounts to only about half of what is normally expected during this period.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently projected that the El Niño climatic phenomenon will intensify from August through October, altering temperature and rainfall patterns.
This has sparked growing concern among officials regarding how much rainfall will occur during the remaining monsoon period in Nepal.
Last year, reduced rainfall in the Terai-Madhesh region at this time negatively affected rice planting. Before this year’s monsoon began, warnings were already issued that rising temperatures and decreased rainfall might occur due to El Niño.
Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology had forecast below-average rainfall and rising temperatures for this monsoon. However, rainfall figures from June and July indicate relatively favorable precipitation.
How Much Rainfall Has Occurred So Far?
Typically, the monsoon system in Nepal begins on June 13 and ends on October 2.
This year, the monsoon arrived six days late, on June 19. Before the official monsoon onset, the pre-monsoon period saw good rainfall, especially in hilly areas.
Climate scientist Sudarshan Humagain reported that an average of 754 millimeters of rain fell across Nepal from June 1 to August 12.
“This corresponds to 80.5 percent of the average rainfall,” he said. In other words, rainfall in the two months has been somewhat below average.
Overall, about 1,500 millimeters of rain typically falls during the entire monsoon season in Nepal. By August 12, only about 51 percent of this amount had been received.
However, with El Niño expected to strengthen during the remaining period, authorities are concerned about its ongoing impact.
Impact of El Niño
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“So far, rainfall has been moderate. Historically, El Niño periods have brought less rain initially, but that won’t always be the case,” explained Vibhuti Pokharel, spokesperson for the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.
She added that the monsoon and western winds continue to bring good rainfall in the hilly regions, but the Terai plains have experienced deficient rainfall.
“El Niño is expected to strengthen between August and October. While it plays a key role in weather patterns, it does not always mean persistent drought.”
“This year, the classic monsoon trough has not been widespread across Nepal, but the hilly areas have continued receiving rainfall.”
Officials have noted that it remains difficult to precisely determine the impact of a strengthening El Niño on Nepal’s weather.
At the start of this week, rainfall paused, leading to strong sunshine and rising heat, but Pokharel reported that rainfall is expected to resume soon.
World Meteorological Organization’s Warning
El Niño develops when ocean surface temperatures rise in the central Pacific Ocean.
It is expected to weaken the monsoon systems across Nepal and South Asia.
Many meteorological organizations worldwide had predicted this year’s El Niño to be an extremely powerful ‘Super El Niño.’
Just days ago, the United Nations agency WMO issued a warning that the system would strengthen from August to October.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated, “El Niño is not only impacting us from abroad but has entered our homes, intensifying heat. This is just the beginning. El Niño is strengthening – it will worsen heat domes, severe wildfires, and ocean temperatures.”
The El Niño weather pattern typically occurs every two to seven years, begins from March to June, and remains active for nine to twelve months.
WMO indicated that in the coming months El Niño is likely to strengthen further, raising temperatures above average in the Indian subcontinent.
This system can cause above-average rainfall in some parts of the world and below-average in others.
“There is a higher probability of drier-than-average conditions in the Indian subcontinent,” noted the WMO.
Status of Rice Planting in Nepal
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Approximately one-third of Nepal’s arable land still lacks irrigation, making rainwater critically important for the agricultural economy.
Due to substantial pre-monsoon rainfall and good precipitation during the first two months of the monsoon, the Ministry of Agriculture reports that by the last week of August, rice planting was completed on 1,316,000 hectares, covering 96 percent of the total rice cultivating area.
The Far-Western Province has achieved 100 percent planting, Koshi Province 93.69 percent, and Madhesh Province 94.65 percent of their rice areas.
Last year, only 91 percent of the rice planting was completed by this time.
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