Bhotekoshi-Trishuli Flood: Weaknesses and Potential Improvements in Nepal’s Early Warning System

The devastating flood in the Bhotekoshi-Trishuli region has raised questions about the effectiveness of Nepal’s early warning system. Many experts believe that timely warnings could have reduced the loss of lives. However, officials have stated that currently, Nepal’s forecasting capability is limited to predicting floods caused by rainfall. Since this particular flood was not triggered by rain, the early warning system was unprepared to handle such a disaster, they acknowledged. Vinod Parajuli, Chief of the Flood Forecasting Division under the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, explained, “We forecast floods caused by rainfall, but our system is not equipped to provide early warnings for floods resulting from glacial lake outbursts or glacial avalanches.” Parajuli also pointed out the lack of adequate early warning centers in the Bhotekoshi-Trishuli area to effectively mitigate the impact of Wednesday’s flood.

Most of the early warning instruments had been installed at bridges considered safe. “Five early warning centers located at Rasuwagadhi, Syafrubesi, Betara, Phalankhu, and Malekhu were damaged in this flood. This exposed the limitations of our system,” he added. Currently, 250 automatic early warning centers operate nationwide to measure flood levels. Among the key river basins and tributaries—including Koshi, Gandaki, Karnali, Mahakali, Bagmati, West Rapti, Babai, and Kankai—five centers were swept away during the Wednesday flood. Measurement sites at Muglin and Devghat remain intact, and ongoing data analysis aims to study the volume and characteristics of the flood.

According to Parajuli, the Rasuwa District Administration Office was the first to receive reports of the flood entering Nepal from Tibet, and this information was promptly relayed to the Flood Forecasting Division. However, when the team tried to verify the situation by contacting staff in Syafrubesi, phone connections could not be established due to communication disruptions. Despite this, the early warning system was activated based on the information available from Syafrubesi. Dharma Raj Upreti, Chief of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, stated that seven hundred thousand SMS alerts were sent to the lower flood-affected areas. After sending these alerts, the Home Ministry was informed immediately, and mass SMS notifications were issued within five to seven minutes. The severe flood struck Betrawati within minutes of the alerts being sent, but the public did not take the warnings seriously, creating challenges in response. Upreti commented, “Even with the intention to warn people, the lack of clarity about flood levels and potential damage prevented the gravity of the situation from being fully communicated to the public.”