Concerns Rise Over Forecasted Heavy Rainfall Starting Thursday: Meteorologists and Authorities Respond
Photo credit, EPA
Meteorologists have indicated a possibility of ‘heavy to very heavy’ rainfall in various parts of Nepal starting October 8. However, officials from government weather and disaster management agencies have stated that the situation is currently being monitored and no immediate concerns have arisen.
They explained that a weather system developing over the Bay of Bengal could impact Nepal, and if it converges with a western atmospheric system, it might produce significant effects.
This warning by meteorologists has understandably raised concerns among the public, especially as Nepal is still recovering from a major natural disaster.
The additional rainfall is expected to increase water flow in local streams and rivers, prompting authorities to focus on risk management and preparedness.
Response from Meteorological and Disaster Agencies
Photo credit, EPA
While various forecasts about the potential weather system have been circulating, authorities from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) have urged caution in drawing any definitive conclusions about its impact at this stage.
They indicated that the weather pattern’s development and possible path will become clearer in the coming days.
Vibhuti Pokharel, spokesperson for the DHM, stated on Sunday afternoon, “Several weather models show a developing low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, but we have not reached any conclusive findings yet.”
She added, “There will be rainfall, but it is premature to provide solid details on the quantity and impact. There is still time, so unnecessary panic is unwarranted.”
Likewise, officials at the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) are conducting detailed risk analyses and confirmed that necessary preparatory and responsive measures will be taken in a timely manner.
Dharma Raj Upreti, head of the authority, told media on Sunday, “We are continuously coordinating with the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and tracking the system’s progress. We plan to release the first official assessment on Monday.”
Views from Meteorologists
Meteorologists have predicted the likelihood of heavy rainfall in western parts of Gandaki Province and other areas by Thursday.
They note that if the low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal strengthens, it could possibly develop into a cyclone.
Although the cyclone itself may not reach Nepal, its impacts are expected, especially when combined with the western atmospheric system, potentially resulting in heavy rains.
Madan Sigdel, Associate Professor at Tribhuvan University’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, said, “Except for some parts of Sudurpashchim Province, most places will experience substantial rainfall. However, impacts may vary by location, with some areas experiencing very heavy rain.”
The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology categorizes daily rainfall amounts as light (under 25 mm), moderate (25-50 mm), heavy (50-100 mm), very heavy (100-200 mm), and extremely heavy (over 200 mm).
Sigdel further explained, “Cyclones have distinct phases. Currently, it is in a pre-development stage and is expected to develop further before reaching the final phase. Its projected path runs from east to central and towards the west.”
However, spokesperson Vibhuti Pokharel added that although the track is visible, it will take more time to conclude regarding the impacts.
She stated, “Once the track is clearer, we take the situation seriously. However, tracks can be changeable — sometimes weakening, sometimes intensifying. We are continually receiving updated information from all angles.”
Sigdel from Tribhuvan University agrees that the cyclone’s track might change in the coming days.
Risks
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According to meteorologists, even 100 millimeters of rainfall within 24 hours could raise the risk of floods and landslides under current conditions.
Sigdel noted, “The ground is already saturated with moisture, and with decreasing discharge, water levels in rivers and streams could rise, increasing flood and landslide risks.”
“Since it is festival time, it is advisable to travel only with accurate information. Flood and landslide problems exist in some areas, and additional rainfall could exacerbate risks. Taking precautions can help reduce damage,” he recommended.
Last year, the ‘Montha’ cyclone, also originating in the Bay of Bengal, caused heavy rainfall and flood-triggered landslides in parts of Nepal.
Precautions
Pokharel from the Department of Meteorology said the department is in ongoing discussion with the disaster authority to alert and prepare the public in case of adverse conditions.
She added, “So far, the situation does not warrant urgent action. We will implement necessary measures in time.”
Authority head Upreti stated that the government machinery is preparing to prevent unnecessary panic.
“We are analyzing how conditions might develop and the potential impacts on agriculture,” he added.
“Also, as the monsoon retreats, we are closely monitoring whether environmental conditions will support the system’s westward movement.”
An advisory message could be issued on Monday after evaluating the potential limited impacts.
“We are studying the possible scenario from multiple perspectives and will announce the official stance only on Monday,” he said.
Citizens are urged to regularly update themselves with weather forecasts and warnings. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology routinely issues official updates on this matter.
If necessary, alerts such as SMS warnings and other informative and awareness measures will also be issued by the department and disaster authority.
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