The United States is preparing to withdraw its remaining troops from Iraq by September 30, marking the end of a military presence that has lasted for over two decades. This move signals the conclusion of the US military involvement that began with the 2003 invasion aimed at overthrowing Saddam Hussein. Since then, Iraq has suffered years of armed insurgency and sectarian violence. Although US forces withdrew in 2011, they returned in 2024 to assist in defeating the Islamic State (IS) group. The ongoing growing tensions with Iran and the resulting threats faced by US personnel in Iraq have reportedly accelerated this decision. Analysts suggest that despite the troop withdrawal, American influence in Iraq will not necessarily diminish.
In 2024, Washington and Baghdad agreed to conclude the coalition mission named ‘Operation Inherent Resolve,’ which was focused on combating IS forces. At the peak of the Iraq war in 2007, around 170,000 US troops were stationed in the country. Before the agreement on the troop withdrawal, US Central Command reported that by December 2023 the number had been reduced to 2,400. According to local media, only a small contingent remains deployed in the Kurdistan region.
“After the objective of defeating ISIS in Iraq was achieved, the troop withdrawal agreement was made during the previous Iraqi government,” said Safwan Al-Amin, Non-Resident Fellow of the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council in Washington. This decision also reflects the longstanding political pressure within Iraq. Douglas Silliman, who served as US Ambassador to Iraq from 2016 to 2019, noted that successive Iraqi governments have consistently demanded the end of the US military presence, often viewing American forces as interference in sovereignty.
According to Al-Amin, the troop withdrawal does not imply the end of American influence in Iraq. “Iraq depends on oil sales priced in US dollars, so the United States continues to maintain significant influence,” he explained. Saeed also regards the extensive US diplomatic presence in Iraq as central to this influence. “The largest US embassy in the world is in Baghdad, and the largest consulate is in Erbil,” he pointed out, emphasizing that both facilities will require security even after the troop withdrawal.
Analysts say the troop withdrawal will raise questions about the balance of power between the US and Iran in the region. Al-Amin believes Iran will seek to strengthen its influence whenever possible and cautions that this withdrawal should not be seen as permanent. “This story marks the end of one chapter, but not the final chapter,” he concluded.
