Following over two decades of conflict that claimed the lives of more than 4,500 American soldiers, the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq has been celebrated as a victory by Iran and its allies. In reality, Iran and its supporters currently exert deep influence within Iraq. According to Iraqi security experts, this withdrawal stems from a decision made during President Joe Biden’s administration in 2024. Despite weapons-related controversies, the process was initiated under the Trump administration. This development is expected to create an open and favorable environment for Tehran and its powerful allies, potentially enabling groups such as the Islamic State and other US adversaries to become active again.
“The removal of coalition forces will strategically benefit Iran because the long-standing US military presence maintaining a balance against Tehran’s influence in Iraq is now ending,” explained Iraqi security analyst Jasim Al-Bahadli, who studies Iran-affiliated armed groups. He added that Iranian-backed factions will not only see this withdrawal as a success of their movement but will also use the opportunity to increase their impact over security policies and political decisions.
Abu Mujtaba Al-Yasiri, commander of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iran-supported armed groups—called the US troop withdrawal a historic victory. “This is a historic triumph for Iraqi Islamic resistance groups and the honorable Iraqi people. It marks a major failure of the American project,” he stated. “On September 30, we will celebrate removing a dark chapter from Iraq’s history. The occupiers failed to impose their will upon our country,” he told Reuters.
The US military’s departure is widely popular among Iraqis; however, concerns have been raised over the growing power of Iranian-backed groups, with some fearing the withdrawal happened prematurely. “We believe that Iraq is not yet fully prepared to take on complete responsibility for its security,” said Abdulrahman Al-Zobai, a Sunni tribal leader from Fallujah, a city once known as a center of resistance against the US. “All Iraqis desire full sovereignty, and there is consensus on this issue. However, I think many are fearful as the US-led coalition leaves and a power vacuum emerges,” he added.
