Malaysia and Thailand Seek BRICS Membership; Japan Voices Concerns Over Shift in Power Balance

Tokyo is closely monitoring the applications submitted by Malaysia and Thailand to join the emerging economies bloc, BRICS. The grouping is viewed as a rival alliance to established economic powers such as Europe, the United States, and Japan. Analysts suggest that these Southeast Asian nations may be attempting to move away from the historically balanced diplomacy maintained among established and emerging power groups, a development that has raised concerns in Japan. According to Japanese assessments, these countries are primarily leaning towards the bloc influenced by China and Russia.

“There will be considerable concern and apprehension expressed in Tokyo about this,” said Go Itol, professor of politics and international relations at Meiji University in Tokyo. Speaking with ‘This Week in Asia,’ he added, “Thailand’s relationship with China has been very strong for some time now. We should not forget that Thailand hosts the largest number of Confucius Institutes outside the United States.”

Confucius Institutes, operated by the Chinese government, provide educational and cultural programs but have faced criticism for serving as tools of state propaganda. According to Itol, both Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur may expect economic gains from their swift inclusion in BRICS. Malaysia aims to expand its semiconductor industry, while Thailand seeks to strengthen its domestic automobile sector. Thailand submitted its BRICS membership application in June, followed by Malaysia officially confirming its decision the next month. The BRICS summit scheduled for later this month in Russia is expected to approve both countries’ applications.

Established in 2009 with Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as members, BRICS has since pursued an aggressive expansion strategy. Last year’s summit in South Africa welcomed six new member states. China and Russia appear eager to include countries from the ‘Global South’ that feel sidelined by economically powerful nations, aiming to create an alternative to Western dominance. The original five members accounted for roughly 40 percent of the global population and about 25 percent of the world economy. Analysts believe adding new members will further increase the bloc’s influence. Japan is unlikely to remain passive in response to BRICS expansion.

Itol noted that Japan is expected to accelerate cooperation with Thailand and Malaysia, akin to its recent engagement with Vietnam. He pointed toward strengthening security relations to counter China’s growing assertiveness in the South China Sea. However, Jeff Kingston, director of Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo, suggested that the membership applications from these two nations do not necessarily signal a major shift in their loyalties.

“This should be seen as a savvy hedging strategy, where they are essentially asking, ‘What can you do for me?’” Kingston explained. Both countries are striving to position themselves advantageously to maximize benefits from all sides.

“So far, I have seen no clear evidence that either side has shifted allegiance; instead, they are cleverly sitting in the middle, waiting to see which side offers greater advantage,” he added. According to Kingston, the main weakness of the BRICS alliance lies in its geographic and political diversity. For instance, South Africa has limited ties with Russia, while Thailand’s cooperation with the United Arab Emirates is also minimal.

“Member states seek to maintain a high value of the coalition, but there is limited alignment on other foreign policy objectives,” he noted. “This is an organization still searching for a coherent and consistent agenda, and it is unlikely that such an agenda will be established in the near term.”

Japan has long played a significant role in Southeast Asia. In addition to substantial investment, it allocates nearly 70 percent of its foreign aid budget to this region in recent decades. “Compared to Chinese, South Korean, or Taiwanese companies, Japanese firms are viewed as more supportive investors. Japan is seen as an easy and responsible partner in infrastructure development,” Kingston said.

He also emphasized Japan’s strengths in adhering to timelines and precision in work. While he considers the likelihood of other regional countries following Malaysia and Thailand in applying to join BRICS as low, he reiterated Japan’s long-term strategic ‘long game’ approach based on shared commitments and strengthening relationships with social and governmental levels.