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Monsoon Outlook for This Year and Government’s Damage Mitigation Plan

The government has announced efforts to strengthen and make the monsoon command post more effective in reducing potential damage caused by monsoon-related disasters this year. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has forecasted lower rainfall during this monsoon season. However, a reduction in rainfall does not guarantee fewer flood and landslide incidents, as the department’s forecast suggests that central and local authorities, along with security agencies, must remain vigilant and actively engaged in damage mitigation, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority.

The authority has asserted that various types of disasters could still occur due to potential issues like glacier melting and drought if rainfall is low. An expert noted that disaster control will benefit if warnings based on the department’s forecast are efficiently disseminated to alert residents in affected areas. Although flooding and landslides during the monsoon season typically cause significant human and material losses annually, the authority concluded that the government effectively minimized damage last year despite heavy rainfall.

According to disaster portal data, between May 20, 2025, and May 19, 2026 (Nepali fiscal year 2082 Jestha 7 to 2083 Jestha 7), there were 104 deaths and 31 missing persons due to monsoon-related floods and landslides, with 99 people injured. In contrast, the previous year (2081 Jestha 7 to 2082 Jestha 7) recorded 447 deaths, 67 missing persons, and 335 injured. An expert explained that even with heavy rainfall last year, timely warnings and alertness among agencies such as the Red Cross helped reduce these losses.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has projected reduced rainfall in many parts of the country during this year’s monsoon. The monsoon typically begins around June 13. Although there is a possibility of an earlier onset this year, the exact start date remains unconfirmed, the department reported. While the monsoon is expected to arrive in India’s southern state of Kerala by May 26, officials stated that it is difficult to rely solely on this for forecasting Nepal’s monsoon onset. “Even after it starts in Kerala, the monsoon sometimes stops progressing,” said senior meteorologist Vibhuti Pokharel.

Under the Home Ministry, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority has approved the National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Plan to reduce risks and facilitate relief and rescue operations during the monsoon. “This plan focuses on preparedness to minimize monsoon-related incidents and reduce overall damage,” said authority spokesperson Shanti Mahat. “Clear responsibilities and response mechanisms have been established to ensure prompt action during disasters.”