News Summary
Reviewed editorially.
- Chinese analyst Zhu Feng warns that the era of the ‘Three Joint Communiqués’ guiding US-China relations has completely ended.
- Zhu Feng argues that due to US domestic politics, a broad political understanding between Beijing and Washington on Taiwan is unlikely.
- China opposes US arms sales to Taiwan and emphasizes that maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait is a shared interest between the two countries.
Kathmandu – A leading Chinese analyst has warned that the era of the ‘Three Joint Communiqués’ that direct US-China relations may be coming to a complete end.
Zhu Feng, Dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University, stated that due to internal US politics, the prospect of a broad political consensus between Beijing and Washington on the Taiwan issue may be unrealistic.
Earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump held a significant summit. Following the talks, Beijing announced that both leaders had agreed to build a “constructive relationship of strategic stability,” describing it as a major milestone.
The White House echoed this phrase, emphasizing that relations should advance “on the basis of fairness and mutual benefit.”
According to Zhu Feng, this reflects a bilateral effort to align understandings and policy frameworks, laying a new foundation for future relations.
Speaking at a webinar organized by the Macau Center for Regional and Strategic Studies to review Trump’s visit to Beijing, Zhu said, “The real and policy influence of the three Joint Communiqués on China-US relations has now completely ended.”
He added that the most important aspect of current bilateral interactions is not just whether new joint statements or communiqués will be issued but how Beijing and Washington will achieve concrete and constructive outcomes on specific policies through practical dialogue.
Zhu further noted that the two countries have entered a phase of “structural, long-term, and strategic” competition.
The Three Joint Communiqués, signed in 1972, 1978, and 1982, have so far formed the political basis of relations between Beijing and Washington. These agreements primarily established policy guidelines both sides would follow regarding Taiwan.
Since 1949, the Taiwan issue remains the oldest and most complex dispute between Beijing and Washington.
Beijing considers Taiwan part of China and believes it must be reunified by force if necessary.
The US and many other countries do not officially recognize Taiwan as an independent state. However, Washington continues to sell arms to Taiwan and opposes any attempt to control the island by force.
The 1972 Shanghai Communiqué states that all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait agree there is one China and that Taiwan is part of China, and the United States also recognizes this.
In the 1979 joint communiqué, Washington severed diplomatic ties with Taipei and recognized Beijing. In the same year, the US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act.
The third joint communiqué, signed in August 1982, stated that the US government intended to gradually reduce and end arms sales to Taiwan.
Yet the Reagan administration provided Taiwan with the “Six Assurances” to guarantee its security, which the US Congress reaffirmed in 2016.
According to Zhu Feng, expecting a US commitment to fully stop arms sales to Taiwan from the recent summit between top China-US leaders is “completely unrealistic.”
He said, “Taiwan has long been used as an important political tool for domestic political gain within the US.”
When asked if a new broad political understanding can be reached between China and the US on Taiwan, Zhu responded, “In my personal view, the practical possibility does not exist.”
Citing Trump’s statements, Zhu noted that Trump “does not want to see anyone become independent” and is “not willing to go on a long journey for war,” which he described as “very positive.”
On Thursday, acting US Navy Secretary Hong Koo said that arms sales to Taiwan worth $1.4 billion had been “stopped” due to internal military material shortages, but the Pentagon clarified that the final decision rests with Trump.
In response, Beijing reiterated its “firm opposition” to US arms sales to Taiwan on Friday, describing its stance as “clear and unwavering.”
During the May 14 dialogue with Trump, Chinese President Xi said that “the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations.” He emphasized that maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait is the greatest shared interest between Beijing and Washington.
Zhu pointed out that Beijing has adopted a “constructive” approach on this issue and that this shared interest is a “flexible” concept sending an important signal to Washington.
He stressed that as long as Taiwan’s pro-independence supporters do not cross a certain “red line,” Beijing is in no hurry to unify the country by force.
