May 13, Kathmandu. Since February, the markets in Tehran have been unusually quiet. As oil prices soared, truck drivers hesitated to take to the roads. Ships lined up at Gulf ports, waiting due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the strait has seen intermittent openings and closings, it has yet to regain its normal flow. Ceasefires during this period were punctuated by sporadic attacks.
Amidst this, yesterday’s international media reports confirmed that preliminary agreements to end the ongoing war between the United States and Iran have entered the final stages. Senior officials from both sides confirmed this on Friday. Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi and high-ranking US administration officials stated that the deal is now “closer than ever before.”
Under the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened, US sanctions will be lifted, and a 60-day negotiation period concerning Iran’s nuclear program will commence. However, a source informed Reuters that US forces shot down Iranian drones heading toward the Strait of Hormuz just yesterday. These drones posed a threat to commercial shipping. The US Central Command later confirmed the action and emphasized that the strait remains open for navigation.
Iranian news agencies reported sounds of explosions near Iran’s Sirik port and Qeshm Island by the strait. Local residents and officials said these blasts were warning shots fired by the Revolutionary Guard Navy against ships attempting to cross the strait without authorization.
The draft of this agreement has been shared with multiple outlets, including Reuters, Politico, BBC, and Axios. While some details vary, the overall framework is clear. The initial and most urgent points include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade on Iranian ports. Both measures are expected to be implemented almost simultaneously. After reopening, the goal is to return shipping traffic to pre-conflict levels within 30 days. This would be followed by a 60-day negotiation period focused on Iran’s nuclear program, specifically managing its stockpile of enriched uranium.
US officials have indicated that the agreement will commit Iran to never acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran had pledged such a commitment over five decades ago under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, though recent advances in its nuclear program raised doubts about this pledge. The US demands dismantling the nuclear program and the destruction of highly enriched uranium stockpiles.
Economic provisions are also significant. The agreement outlines a gradual lifting of sanctions on Iran and phased release of “frozen assets” — funds currently restricted. However, these benefits will only be enacted once Iran proves compliance with its obligations. The deal also includes Iran’s commitment to cease financial support for proxy groups in the Middle East, particularly Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed forces, a longstanding US demand.
Qatar and Pakistan have played key mediator roles in constructing the deal. According to Axios, the Wednesday night talks were especially decisive, involving hours-long discussions in Tehran between Qatar’s mediator Ali Al-Thawadi and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Al-Thawadi also engaged in multiple phone calls with US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed on Friday that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) had been agreed upon between the US and Iran, pending final signatures. If signed, the document will be known as the “Islamabad Agreement.”
Leading US negotiators include Vice President JD Vance, Chief of Staff Suzy Wills, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, Presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe. Inside sources reveal President Trump was highly involved in drafting language concerning the destruction and removal of enriched nuclear material. Four US Air Force C-17 aircraft carrying materials for a potential signing ceremony in Geneva departed for Europe on Thursday. According to a Western source, Vice President Vance and Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf could sign the agreement in Geneva as soon as Sunday.
President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that he had canceled “planned strikes” against Iran, citing negotiators’ progress toward a “big deal.” He anticipated imminent signing of the agreement. However, Iranian media published details of a supposed 14-point agreement on Friday. Trump dismissed these as unrelated to the pact’s agreed terms and called them “falsehoods,” also criticizing Iranian leadership as “dishonorable.”
A senior US administration official stated that renewed confidence stems from Iran’s firm commitment to removing enriched nuclear material, a development pleasing to the president. The likelihood of the deal’s success is estimated between 80 and 85 percent.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi declared on television outside the negotiations, “Iran is the winner in the war with the US.” This statement has raised concerns among US officials. He also claimed, “The administration of the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be the same as before. Iran will share control of the strait’s navigation with Oman. Our sword will always hang over the Strait of Hormuz.”
Since the closure of Hormuz, Iran had been charging fees to vessels seeking passage. The US has insisted on free navigation for all ships.
Regarding nuclear issues, Araghchi expressed Iran’s preference for “down-blending” highly enriched uranium stockpiles to less dangerous forms. He said, “For Tehran, the only viable solution is the down-blending of highly enriched uranium stockpiles.” In contrast, US officials expect the nuclear material to be destroyed and removed from the country, although exact methods remain undetermined, marking a significant divergence of views.
Araghchi further stated on television, “As soon as final phases of negotiations conclude, the agreement will be signed and announced. It may happen in the coming days. I am very optimistic.” However, he acknowledged divisions within Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, with both supporters and opponents of the deal. He added, “For now, we must wait. If approved, the signing will take place remotely.”
The most complex and contentious aspect of the agreement centers on Iran’s nuclear program. Despite US and Israeli attacks, Iran has secured some nuclear materials in underground facilities. Sources indicate that President Trump has agreed to allow Iran to down-blend its enriched uranium under UN inspectors’ supervision, but only after the secondary agreement is finalized. The initial MoU signing will mark the start of a 60-day period designated for intensive negotiations on this issue.
An official remarked, “Technical details remain to be worked out, but there is commitment to dismantle the nuclear weapons program, deactivate nuclear sites, and determine methods through subsequent technical talks.”
Arab officials remain skeptical. During negotiations, officials from Arab countries have expressed difficulty in believing that Iran intends to make any significant nuclear concessions.
Israel remains entirely excluded from this agreement process. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear his country will not support the deal. Axios reported that Trump’s announcement of the finalized agreement surprised Netanyahu, who reportedly felt left in the dark and sought updates by calling aides close to the Trump administration.
Israel’s Defense Minister asserted that the country will not cede any territory. Another Israeli official emphasized Israel’s capacity to act independently: “If Iran maintains the capability to acquire nuclear weapons, necessary measures will be taken,” he stated.
The US appears to confine the agreement strictly to interactions between the US and Iran. However, Iran wants the war between Israel and Hezbollah also addressed within the terms. Foreign Minister Araghchi has signaled that this issue needs inclusion, yet Israel remains opposed.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has vowed to continue attacks against Hezbollah, which targets Israel’s northern territories, showing resolve on this front. The US has indicated Lebanon will not be part of the agreement, despite Iranian insistence. This remains another area of uncertainty.
