A seasonal weather system developing over the Bay of Bengal is expected to cause widespread rainfall across Nepal from Thursday for four consecutive days, meteorological officials have warned. The system, which will intensify into a cyclone over eastern coastal states of India by Wednesday morning, is likely to bring rain to most parts of Nepal starting Thursday.
“Light rainfall will begin in eastern Nepal on Wednesday, extending gradually to the central region with increasing cloud cover. From Thursday to Saturday, heavy rain is anticipated across many areas,” said Hari Dahal, a meteorologist at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. “Karnali and Sudurpashchim provinces may experience partial impact, but eastern and central regions are expected to face more significant effects.” According to the meteorologists’ ongoing analysis, some areas might see heavy to very heavy rainfall accompanied by substantial snowfall in the high Himalayan regions.
Associate Professor Binod Pokharel of the Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology at Tribhuvan University compared the incoming system to the major 2014 ‘Hudhud’ cyclone. The post-monsoon system back then caused heavy snowfall in Mustang and Manang, leading to the deaths of several tourists. “This time, the affected area is broader, with steady rain and snowfall expected across the hilly parts of Bagmati, Gandaki, Lumbini, and Koshi provinces,” Pokharel added.
While initial impacts are expected in Koshi, Bagmati, and Gandaki provinces, the most intense effects are likely between Thursday night and Friday across many regions of Nepal. Karnali, Sudurpashchim, and western Lumbini provinces are predicted to see less severe effects, although scattered showers may still occur in some places,” Hari Dahal noted.
The National Agriculture Environmental Research Center has urged farmers to complete paddy harvesting by Tuesday and issued a notice accordingly. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority has recommended revising rice harvesting plans for Thursday through Saturday.
The government has also advised travelers planning to move during this period to stay updated on the latest weather conditions before setting out. Meteorologist Binod Pokharel stated that this new system, in conjunction with the northeast monsoon prevailing over southern India and a western disturbance, will enhance rainfall over Nepal. “Upon reaching Nepal, this system is likely to merge with the western low-pressure system, potentially causing even heavier rains,” Pokharel explained.
Ram Bahadur KC, spokesperson for the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority, said they are continuously monitoring the system in coordination with the meteorological department. “We have recommended avoiding trekking and mountaineering in the Himalayas from Kartik 11 to 15 and suggested that those already in these areas relocate to safe locations promptly,” he said.
Weather officials expect the system’s impact to subside starting Saturday.
