Summary
Prepared after review.
- The conflict between Iran and Israel escalated from a shadow war since Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack to a full-scale war following a joint US-Israel airstrike on February 28, 2026.
- Russia considers Iran a strategic partner, providing indirect military and technical support while maintaining security coordination with Israel.
- China protects its long-term economic and political interests in the Middle East through diplomatic pressure and indirect support, avoiding direct military involvement.
March 30, Kathmandu – For decades, a ‘shadow war’ has been ongoing between Iran and Israel, limited to cyberattacks, assassinations of scientists, and proxy skirmishes. However, this conflict has now escalated to open warfare in 2024 after an Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus and Iran’s missile strikes in retaliation against Israel, marking a new chapter in history.
The conflict further intensified into full-scale war after the joint US-Israel airstrikes against Iran began on February 28, 2026. Attacks targeting Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, nuclear facilities, military bases, and oil infrastructure have significantly affected the regional balance. Iran has responded with missile and drone strikes on Israeli oil refineries, Gulf ports, and American bases. Meanwhile, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have targeted Israel, and Hezbollah’s activities in Lebanon have increased.
In major wars, great powers tend to be involved either directly or indirectly. In this conflict, while the US is directly involved, global powers Russia and China have yet to engage militarily in the war. They continue to exert diplomatic pressure and provide indirect support without direct military intervention.
How Did This War Begin?
The conflict began with Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Subsequently, Israel launched a significant military operation in Gaza. Iran increased pressure on Israel and the US through its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. In 2024, Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Syria, prompting Iran’s direct missile strike. In June 2025, Israel and the US attacked Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan in what was termed the ‘Twelve-Day War.’
By February 2026, US President Donald Trump adopted a maximum pressure policy. The International Atomic Energy Agency accused Iran of nuclear non-compliance. On February 28, the US and Israel launched joint operations named ‘Epic Fury’ and ‘Roaring Lion.’
Extensive attacks were conducted on hundreds of targets including Tehran and Isfahan. The killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei was announced, with his son Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding him. Iran warned of closing the Strait of Hormuz and attacked oil infrastructure.
By March 31, 2026, the situation deteriorated dramatically. A fire broke out at Israel’s Haifa refinery, power outages struck Tehran, and drone attacks targeted Gulf countries. Oil prices surged. The US deployed special forces, and Trump threatened destruction of oil and electricity facilities if the Strait of Hormuz was blocked. Iran vowed to retaliate against US forces. Although the war lasted almost a month, it has not fully escalated into a complete war yet.
The Decisive and Direct Role of the United States
The US is Israel’s main ally. The Trump administration linked Israel’s existential crisis to US national interest. The US employed B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites. Israel shared real-time intelligence, and the US military assisted with missile defense systems.
Despite open support, public opinion in the US remains divided. According to a PBS/NPR/Marist survey, 56% oppose the war while 44% support it. Most Americans believe this war primarily benefits Israel, making it less advantageous for the US.
Russia’s Cautious Support
Russia condemned the attacks on Iran as ‘unauthorized’ and called for peaceful resolution. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova urged diplomatic solutions, while President Putin’s chief advisor Sergey Lavrov called for a halt to attacks. Russia has sided with Iran in the UN Security Council.
The ongoing brutal war in Ukraine complicates Moscow’s Middle East role. With key military and economic resources committed to Ukraine, Russia avoids engaging in another conflict.
Russia’s priority remains victory in Ukraine, which shapes its relations with Iran. Their partnership deepens not only diplomatically but also in military and technological exchanges.
Iran has supplied Russia with ‘Shahed’ drones and other critical materials for the Ukraine conflict, while Russia has provided advanced air defense systems, cyber security, and classified intelligence to Iran, according to international reports.
Both countries demonstrate unified interests in multilateral forums like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, challenging Western and particularly US influence. They also collaborated during Syria’s civil war, strengthening strategic ties.
Russia and Israel maintain an informal non-attack pact spanning years. Russia remains silent during Israeli airstrikes aimed at reducing Iranian influence in Syria, and Israel refrains from providing direct military aid to Ukraine.
While Russia regards Iran as a strategic partner, it continues security coordination with Israel, helping maintain a balance against the West in the Middle East.
Russia’s primary focus remains the Ukraine war, where it concentrates resources, troops, and attention. The US engagement alongside Israel in the Middle East diverts American resources away from Ukraine. US special forces, Patriot missiles, and air assets are deployed in the Middle East, compelling European allies to shift focus to the Gulf region. This allows Russia increased operational freedom in Ukraine.
Rising oil prices have strengthened Russia’s economy. Before the war, Russia’s oil revenue was at a five-year low. However, the Iran war-induced instability of the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted Gulf oil supply pushed Brent crude prices to $115 per barrel. Russia’s daily oil and LNG exports earn 14% more revenue compared to February.
Asian buyers like China and India have increased purchases of Russian oil to compensate for reduced Iranian supplies. This supports Russia’s war budget, aiding military production, recruitment bonuses, and economic stability.
Relations between Russia and Iran have evolved into a robust ‘strategic partnership.’ Long-term agreements made in 2025 have elevated this relationship. At the Ukraine war’s outset, Iran supplied large amounts of drones and ammunition to Russia, with reciprocal support continuing.
Sources report Russia provides Iran with upgraded drone technology refined from Ukraine war experience, spare parts, high-quality satellite imagery, critical intelligence on American naval and military deployments, and drone operational advisory.
Nevertheless, Russia’s support remains indirect and limited. It has not directly deployed military forces, stationed troops, or supplied advanced missile systems in Iran.
There are two main reasons: first, Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine has depleted military and economic resources; second, a longstanding informal non-attack agreement with Israel restricts antagonizing Tel Aviv.
Israel has not armed Ukraine with lethal weapons nor imposed stringent sanctions on Russia. Moscow, therefore, avoids provoking Israel, preserving its military bases in Syria and maintaining a decades-old ‘de-confliction mechanism’ that enables military coordination and prevents conflict between Russian and Israeli forces. Direct involvement risks NATO confrontation and complicates Ukraine peace negotiations, prompting Russian caution.
Diplomatically, Russia remains a staunch supporter of Iran, opposing condemnation motions at the UN Security Council.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has characterized the Middle East tension as destabilizing and calls for peaceful solutions. However, this support is measured. Russia considers Iran an important strategic ally but has no mutual security treaty. It carefully balances this alliance against relations with Israel and Western powers.
Russia’s long-term strategy is complex and self-interested. Weakening Iran would diminish Russian influence in the Middle East as Iran anchors the ‘axis of resistance,’ connecting Syria, Hezbollah, and Houthi rebels to Moscow. Iranian weakness would reduce Russia’s foothold in Syria and cause setbacks in regional competition with China.
Conversely, a protracted Middle East conflict may yield economic and political benefits for Russia; oil price surges reduce budget deficits, and increased arms and technology sales to Iran generate significant revenue. This situation could fatigue the US and bolster Russia’s vision of a multipolar world order.
While Russia’s official statements are strong in condemnation and support, its actions adopt a wait-and-see approach. Moscow may escalate activity only if the US weakens or Western unity fractures. For now, Russia limits itself to diplomatic pressure, indirect technical aid, and strategic patience to avoid risks and secure long-term gains.
China’s Perspective: Diplomacy, Economy, and Long-Term Strategy
China’s approach appears more cautious and diplomatic than Russia’s. Foreign Minister Wang Yi condemned the US-Israeli joint strikes as violations of international law. China currently advocates for ceasefire and negotiations and maintains dialogue with Gulf Cooperation Council countries emphasizing regional stability.
China’s absence of direct military involvement in the Middle East conflict is driven by substantial economic and strategic considerations. China’s massive economy heavily depends on imported oil, with Iran as a key supplier. Closing the Strait of Hormuz would severely disrupt China’s economy.
Under its Belt and Road Initiative, Iran is a strategic partner of China. The 25-year cooperation agreement signed in 2021 envisages nearly $400 billion in investments, which China seeks to safeguard.
China’s strategic thinking centers on three themes. First, promoting a multipolar world order opposing American and Israeli dominance. However, directly entering the Iran side in this war risks exacerbating tensions related to Taiwan and the South China Sea, a highly sensitive scenario.
Second, China aims to establish itself as a ‘peace mediator.’ It played a crucial role in the 2023 Saudi-Iran rapprochement and continues diplomatic engagement with Oman and France to promote talks and peaceful solutions.
Third, China provides indirect support. Prior to the war, China supplied Iran with drone and missile components, along with civilian and military materials. Iran’s Ministry has confirmed ongoing political, economic, and military support from China, though detailed information remains classified. Joint military exercises in multilateral platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS underline close ties, while China avoids direct military intervention.
China’s long-term calculus sees a prolonged Middle East war weakening the US and boosting China’s global influence. However, disruptions in oil supply risk harming China’s own economy. Thus, China currently follows a ‘wait and pressure’ policy—taking Iran’s side diplomatically while protecting its national interests practically. Should the conflict trigger a global economic crisis, China may re-emerge as a mediator to elevate its international stature.
