Author: space4knews

Experts have analyzed that the devastating flood in Risuwa’s Lhende River last Wednesday was caused by an avalanche from an altitude exceeding 5,000 meters. According to Dr. Sudip Thakuri, the energy and temperature generated by the rapid fall of a massive ice mass transformed the flowing water into a sediment-laden flood. He noted that the nature of the floods in Risuwagadhi and Chamoli are similar, with glacier lakes and avalanches both posing significant risks. Dr. Thakuri recommended measures such as risk zone mapping, early warning systems, and effective land-use policies to mitigate damage.

Experts are analyzing the recent flood using various data and statistics. They identify a large glacier collapse in the northern part of Langtang as the main cause of the catastrophic flood. However, the exact nature of the so-called ‘glacial tsunami’ remains unclear among researchers. Dr. Thakuri, Associate Professor at Tribhuvan University, explained that the flood resulted from a large volume of snow falling from Nepal’s higher elevations.

In an edited interview with Krishna Gyawali, Dr. Thakuri discussed the causes of the Risuwa flood. What could have triggered the swift and massive flood in the Lhende River? Understanding where the flood originated is crucial. Data suggests the event began above 5,000 meters. The glacier in the northern slope of Langtang was approximately at that height, above a river valley at about 3,000 meters.

Therefore, a large ice mass likely fell nearly 2,000 meters downward. Gravity’s pull and the size of the ice mass contributed to its speed. The steepness of the area further accelerated the flow. The flood reached Risuwagadhi rapidly, initially traveling over 120 km/h, maintaining this speed downstream. The velocity is estimated to have decreased only upon reaching Chitwan.

Why did the flood containing the glacier ice gained such unnaturally high speed after falling from roughly 5,000 meters? Experts haven’t reached a clear consensus. Reports indicate a large ice block fell from above with massive energy release. The relatively high temperature at that elevation caused the fast-moving ice fragments to melt and turn into a slurry almost instantly.

Current hypotheses suggest that the landslide area may have contained accumulated snow or water, and the glacier might have altered its path previously. There is a possibility that rocks and debris covering an inner melting zone collided with the landslide, acting as a lubricant for the glacier to slide down. These combined factors might have created a large debris flow.

The flood carried not just water but rocks, soil, debris, and trees at high speed, causing wide-scale destruction downstream. Are there precedents for such a large and catastrophic Himalayan disaster? Rarely have such losses to human life and infrastructure been recorded in Nepal in the past 200 years. Similar events include floods in Sikkim (India), the Chamoli flood caused by the Nanda Devi landslide, last year’s Risuwagadhi flood, and floods in Thame and Seti.

Compared to these, the Risuwagadhi flood stands out as the most massive and destructive. Which past events resemble the Risuwagadhi flood? It was caused by an avalanche and shares many characteristics with the Chamoli flood in India, though damages there were comparatively less. Other floods, like Kedarnath, stemmed from cloudburst-induced heavy rains, and the Sikkim event resulted from citizen landslide.

It is essential to distinguish flood causes; Risuwagadhi and Chamoli floods share a similar nature. Currently, the risk of glacier lake outburst disasters and avalanches is rising. Dr. Thakuri conducted studies a few years ago, noting avalanches are not new — about 400 people have died in avalanches since 1920. However, an event of this scale is unprecedented. Nepal hosts roughly 1,500 glaciers, with small ones continually forming; about 200 glaciers are considered at risk. Previously, only large glacier lakes were considered hazardous, but now even smaller ones pose threats.

What might cause the massive ice block to fall? Geological factors, temperature increases, or other reasons? Snow and ice falling from Himalayan glaciers is a natural process. However, rising temperatures may have disrupted the relationship between the ground and ice. Crevices and infiltrating water can weaken rocks. Increased precipitation in the Himalayas has allowed water to seep into cracks, facilitating ice mass movements. Warmer temperatures cause surface ice to melt, weakening glaciers.

The rapidly falling ice block generated considerable energy and heat, contributing to the formation of the sediment-laden flood. Permafrost is typical in the Himalayas; rising temperatures cause this frozen soil to thaw, increasing avalanche risks. While avalanches occur regularly, understanding such massive events demands further research. Identifying hazardous glaciers was once simpler, but unpredictable avalanches like this have increased danger levels.

Glaciers and avalanches pose substantial risks in watershed areas, as many rivers originate from these glaciers. New incidents can be far beyond prior forecasts. Upper Khumbu region hosts glaciers that could affect downstream regions anytime. Many parts of Nepal from east to west remain risk-prone. Identifying and mapping these zones and securing communities are essential. There were signs of glacier lake outburst in Chamoli and Risuwagadhi floods, but glacier collapses were later confirmed.

Should avalanche research be prioritized? Yes, avalanche and rockfall incidents require urgent focus. Any material falling from high Himalayan regions constitutes an avalanche. These risks persist strongly. Snow accumulates in the mountains forming glaciers that flow downward. Uncontrolled glaciers can accumulate ice that later causes avalanches. Over years, snow compacts into ice and slowly descends steep slopes, known as glaciers. Rising temperatures accelerate melting.

Paying close attention to glacier movement is critical. Avalanches differ from normal glacier movement; they involve sudden large ice or rockfalls, separate from normal glacier flow. Scientists attribute increasing Himalayan disasters mainly to rising temperatures. Nepal’s greenhouse gas emissions are about 0.5 percent globally, negligible in climate change impact. External factors primarily drive temperature rises, with developing and developed nations bearing responsibility. However, temperature increases in high Himalayan zones exceed the global average, fueling ongoing debate about its contributory roles.

Events from Risuwagadhi to Malekhu cause risk and damage. How can communities be better protected? Emphasis must be placed on preparedness and early warning systems. Policies must be enacted to relocate settlements and infrastructure away from high-risk zones. When removal is impossible, early warning and mapping become critical. Residents of affected areas told us they had lived there long-term but worried such high-impact damages were new.

How can we even imagine such disaster damages? Compared to Earth’s long-term history, human lifespans are short. Lack of disasters in recent decades or generations doesn’t guarantee safety. At Thame in Solukhumbu, houses were built near a river, indicating the area wasn’t free of risk despite ancestral efforts. Human activities have amplified these risks.

You have mentioned early warning systems could reduce damage. What should such a system look like? Currently, sensors measure water levels on some rivers, and sensors with sirens are installed on several glaciers. Yet, these efforts are insufficient. Many risk zones require integrated early warning systems, even in small areas. In major disasters, minutes of warning can save lives. Appropriate sensors and alert systems in the Risuwagadhi region could have saved many.

We must be more vigilant after such events. Regarding climate justice, what action should Nepal take with the international community? International cooperation is essential for technology and knowledge sharing. Preparedness depends on accurate data collection. Nepal can demand financial compensation and work through UN representation of developing countries to mobilize resources. When claiming compensation, effective advocacy and access in UN platforms are critical.

A cross-party meeting held at Singha Durbar, convened by RASWPA, has decided to proceed with coordinated efforts alongside the government in relief, rescue, and rehabilitation activities. The meeting agreed to expand the political network established at the central level across all tiers and to form mechanisms from Bagmati Province to flood-affected districts and municipalities.

Leaders from UML, NCP, and Congress suggested that the government seek international, technical, and expert assistance for rescuing individuals trapped or detained in tunnels. The meeting took place on 16 Bhadra in Kathmandu.

The unanimous decision of the meeting was to move forward by coordinating with the government in relief, rescue, and rehabilitation efforts. Convened by RASWPA on Tuesday at Singha Durbar, the gathering emphasized working unitedly during disasters, in partnership with the government. Following the meeting, RASWPA spokesperson Jagdish Kharel informed that suggestions and feedback from various political parties on search, rescue, and relief were taken seriously. He added that there was consensus to expand the political network formed centrally across all levels.

Furthermore, such cross-party meetings and mechanisms will also be established in all flood-affected districts and local levels, including Bagmati Province, Kharel stated. The main purpose of these mechanisms will be to assist and facilitate disaster management activities conducted by the respective governments at those levels. Since national consensus involving all three tiers of government, citizens, affected communities, and political parties is necessary for relocating entire settlements, the spokesperson emphasized the agreement to continue and advance the high-level political mechanism.

After the meeting, UML leader Pradeep Gyawali stressed the government must play a serious role in distributing relief to affected citizens and recommended seeking international assistance for rescuing individuals trapped in tunnels. NCP leader Barshaman Pun urged the deployment of experts for the rescue of workers trapped in tunnels and called for opening the rescue operations to private sector and foreign companies. Congress spokesperson Devaraj Chalise advocated that the government seek technical support from other countries for searching and rescuing those trapped in tunnels.

During the fiscal year 2082/83, Rasuwagadhi checkpoint accounted for 2.18 percent of total foreign trade imports. On 24 Ashad 2082, the Bhote Koshi flood forced the Rasuwagadhi checkpoint to close for six months, and 15 employees remain missing. The flood caused extensive damage to the Mitari Bridge, dry port, and surrounding infrastructure, casting uncertainty on the checkpoint’s future.

Kathmandu, 16 Bhadra — In the fiscal year 2082/83, goods worth 2.18 percent of Nepal’s total foreign trade imports were brought in through Rasuwagadhi checkpoint. The import volume was relatively low compared to previous periods because the sudden flood on 24 Ashad 2082 at the Bhote Koshi (Lhende) River, flowing along the Nepal-China border, forced a six-month closure of this checkpoint. Trade resumed after China opened the Bell Bridge on 17 Poush 2082.

In the past six months, imports through Rasuwagadhi totaled NPR 4.573 billion, while exports amounted to NPR 89.46 million. Currently, three checkpoints operate for Nepal-China cross-border trade, with Rasuwagadhi regarded as the most convenient and nearest among them.

Last year, the Tatopani checkpoint saw imports worth NPR 4.748 billion but zero exports. As an alternative to both Rasuwagadhi and Tatopani, the Korala checkpoint in Mustang recorded imports worth NPR 1.44 billion and exports of NPR 20.55 million. The main reason for the increase in trade at Korala was the closure of Rasuwagadhi due to flooding in Ashad of the previous year.

In 2081/82, Rasuwagadhi handled imports worth NPR 8.523 billion and exports totaling NPR 204 million, representing 4.72 percent of total imports and 0.74 percent of exports.

According to Customs Department Director and Information Officer Kishor Bartoula, Rasuwagadhi is the most reliable trade point for Nepal-China commerce. Prior to the 2072 earthquake, China had designated Tatopani as the main customs center, but it has since remained closed for a prolonged period. Currently, Tatopani is not fully operational, and the Chinese side has not shown full willingness to reopen it citing various reasons. Consequently, Rasuwagadhi has become the primary hub for Nepal-China trade.

The flood that struck suddenly at 3 a.m. on 24 Ashad 2082 caused over 18 people to disappear. Severe damage occurred to key physical infrastructures including the Mitari Bridge. Ashish Gajurel, Chairperson of the Parliamentary Development Committee and former Executive Director of the Nepal Intermodal Development Committee, stated, “Last year’s flood sent a serious warning to this customs checkpoint and the surrounding settlements. Perhaps we did not take it seriously enough.”

He added, “10 Bhadra 2083 is established as a tragic black day — one that jeopardized not only the lives of thousands but also government investments worth billions and private sector capitalors in the trillions.”

Rasuwagadhi checkpoint is located 132 kilometers from Kathmandu to Galchi. The Ministry of Infrastructure Development estimates that 40 kilometers of road on the Rasuwa side have been completely washed away. The Department of Roads has commenced assessments of various damaged road sections. Approximately 27 bridges between Mitari Bridge and Galchi have been destroyed, putting customs and immigration operations at Rasuwagadhi in a precarious condition.

Director Bartoula remarked, “The government will make a decision regarding the future of this checkpoint. As it is a key international trade point, the government will study all aspects thoroughly before deciding, and our department will act accordingly.”

The department reports that more than 15 staff members of the customs office are still unaccounted for. The current priority is to search for and rescue these missing employees. Multiple teams have been deployed to ascertain their status.

Rasuwagadhi Customs has a 70-year history. Historically, it has been an important route for trade and cultural exchange between Nepal and Tibet. The Rasuwa Customs Office was established in 2013 BS to regulate revenue collection.

China officially recognized Rasuwagadhi as an international checkpoint in 2075 BS, which enhanced its significance on the international stage. Through this checkpoint, Nepal mainly imports electrical goods, ready-made garments, footwear, construction materials, agricultural products, telecommunications equipment, vehicles, and industrial machinery.

Exports from Nepal through Rasuwagadhi traditionally included blankets, handicrafts, woolen fabrics, medicinal herbs, instant noodles, copper utensils, and agricultural products destined for China. Recently, this checkpoint has also served as a convenient route for Indian pilgrims traveling to Kailash Mansarovar. Hundreds of tourists on this pilgrimage have gone missing due to the floods.

Rasuwagadhi checkpoint plays a vital role in Nepal’s economy and employment generation. Through hotels, transportation, container loading-unloading, customs agents, and small businesses, it provides jobs for thousands of citizens.

The flood last year destroyed the dry port at Rasuwagadhi as well. The 2082 flood caused damages worth NPR 8.159 million to the newly constructed customs building, and NPR 912 million in damages to the dry port. The customs office, goods stored in the yard, vehicles, containers, and machinery suffered estimated losses totaling NPR 705.1 million.

According to Development Committee Chair Ashish Gajurel, the Timure dry port project was valued at NPR 3 billion, with NPR 2 billion already spent. Most structures were completed and the project was moving into the finishing phase. However, the flood caused massive damage, halting further investment.

Currently, the state has incurred huge financial losses and lost employees in this infrastructure. The extent of private investment losses remains to be fully accounted for. Consequently, this historic border and customs center has been reduced to the need for rebuilding from scratch.

Former Chief Minister Rajkumar Sharma expressed opposition during the Karnali Provincial Assembly meeting, protesting that the bill concerning Karnali’s prosperity and economic development, although registered, was not included in the agenda. Due to Sharma’s protest, the assembly meeting was disrupted and subsequently adjourned. He demanded that the bill be immediately presented for discussion.

Provincial Assembly member Suresh Adhikari raised concerns regarding 51 citizens from districts including Salyan who have gone missing after reaching Rasuwa. He criticized the provincial government for not taking effective measures for their search and rescue. — Surkhet, 16 Bhadra. Former Chief Minister and Provincial Assembly member Rajkumar Sharma protested at the provincial assembly venue, accusing the Karnali provincial government of neglecting a significant bill it had registered.

The bill on Karnali’s prosperity and economic development was registered by Sharma at the Provincial Assembly Secretariat on 12 Shrawan. However, since it was not included in the assembly’s agenda in a timely manner, Sharma drew the attention of both the government and the Speaker. He stated that his protest would continue until the bill is added to the agenda.

Sharma accused the government of ignoring the bill related to the province’s prosperity and economic development, insisting that it should be advanced. He demanded that the bill be immediately included in the agenda and discussions be initiated. Additionally, Provincial Assembly member Suresh Adhikari questioned the role of the provincial government regarding the 51 citizens from various Karnali districts, including Salyan, who are missing after traveling to Rasuwa for work.