15 Jestha, Kathmandu. The trench warfare and heavy artillery scenes visible on the battlefields of Ukraine in 2022 are entirely different from the conflict that began after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran. However, some similarities have emerged between these two conflicts. Nearly three months into these wars, these parallels have become even more apparent. In both cases, powerful military forces have been unable to decisively defeat their opponents. Russian President Vladimir Putin had hoped for a swift victory when he launched his special military operation four years ago. Similarly, former U.S. President Donald Trump initially claimed the war against Iran would end within four to five weeks. The Iran conflict began on February 28 of this year.
Professor Nicole Grajevski of the prestigious Paris-based social science university Sciences Po, an expert on Iranian and Russian affairs, said, “Neither Russia nor America has achieved the expected success in their military campaigns.” According to her, a primary reason for this is the ego of both sides. Recent talks showed some progress in initial peace efforts between Iran and the U.S., but this progress became unstable after the U.S. conducted another airstrike on Iran on Monday. Whether or not a deal is reached, these wars have taught crucial lessons about the evolution of modern warfare. The Ukrainian conflict conveys a similar message.
Technology is reshaping the nature of war, where weaker sides, unable to engage in traditional military confrontations with much stronger powers, have adopted “asymmetric” strategies—as seen in Ukraine and Iran—that have successfully countered powerful militaries. For example, Iran has exerted pressure on the U.S. by attacking American allied countries. Drone strikes targeting major military base camps and energy centers in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have instilled fear in the Persian Gulf region. Furthermore, Iran has strengthened its hold on the Strait of Hormuz by deploying naval mines and small, fast, armed boats to intimidate. On the other hand, Ukraine has penetrated as far as Moscow, assassinating Russian military officials and regularly striking oil refineries and storage facilities. Ukraine has also used naval drones to weaken the Russian Black Sea fleet.
Military experts say these conflicts clearly demonstrate how new technology and inventions are transforming warfare. According to some U.S. defense sources, Saudi Arabia’s Prince Sultan Air Base now uses an AI-enabled drone detection system, initially developed by Ukraine to defend against Russian attacks. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s militant group Hezbollah is attacking Israeli soldiers with explosive drones controlled via fiber-optic cables. Multilayered systems of sensors, guided missiles, and AI-enabled drones used in the Persian Gulf region could quickly spread worldwide. Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace explains these wars mark the entry of “wide-ranging and accurate strike technology on the battlefield.” He notes that militants like Hezbollah and groups in Mali have also begun employing economical and accessible technology, making precise battlefield targeting easier even for small and medium powers.
Similar attack strategies were observed before the ceasefire in April’s Middle East clashes, where ballistic missiles were combined with large numbers of drones (drone swarms) in attacks. Experts and officials note Russia first employed this approach during its invasion of Ukraine. In 2022, Iran supplied Russia with “Shahed” drones, which Moscow used against Ukraine. This year, Iran has been deploying those drones in Gulf countries. Conversely, Russia has also provided some military assistance to Iran, though details remain unclear. U.S. officials report Russia has been sending drone components across the Caspian Sea.
According to Professor Grajevski, Russia and Iran have cooperated in altering the Global Positioning System (GPS) to confuse adversaries’ targets. Some vessels affiliated with Iran have spoofed location trackers in the Strait of Hormuz to evade the U.S. Navy. This tactic had already been employed by Russia’s illicit energy tankers. In March 2024, a drone targeting a British military base in Cyprus was found to contain Russian anti-jamming equipment. European officials express concern that if current peace talks fail and Iran resumes attacks, Russia might supply it with weapons. At a recent meeting of countries supporting Ukraine militarily, British Defense Secretary John Healey stated, “We have seen evidence of Russia assisting Iran’s offensive.” Though he did not provide further details, he added, “Putin wanted to redirect our focus to the Middle East and keep us distracted from Ukraine.”
The Iran conflict has caused rifts in diplomatic relations among some countries, particularly between the Trump administration and Europe. Many European leaders have described the dispute as unnecessary and illegal. This conflict has disrupted global energy supplies and triggered fuel stockpiling in many countries. Some have been drawn toward Russia despite sanctions due to the availability of oil and gas. The U.S.’s shift of attention to the Middle East has also impacted peace processes between Russia and Ukraine. Danilo Lubkivski, former Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister and Director of the Kyiv Security Forum, remarked, “It seems the Kremlin toasted champagne happily when President Trump started a war in Iran.”
However, the Iran war has also produced unexpected diplomatic alliances. Ukraine’s new partnerships with Gulf countries exemplify this. In April, Ukraine announced new security agreements with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. These ties were unimaginable years ago, as Gulf countries had remained neutral toward Russia then. Jana Kobzova, Co-Director of the Security Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, explains Kyiv seeks diplomatic support, energy agreements, and modern air defense systems from the Middle East in exchange for Ukrainian drone technology and military training. She notes that Ukrainian President Zelensky hopes to “turn this crisis into an opportunity.” Agreements with oil-rich Gulf states could be very beneficial for Ukraine. These drone technology sales could bring significant economic gains to Ukraine’s rapidly growing defense industry. After the U.S. almost halted weapon grants to Kyiv last year, Europe has become the main supporter of Ukraine. European countries have procured weapons in cooperation with the U.S. and supplied them to Ukraine. Additionally, just last month, the European Union approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine. However, Europe’s continued support will now depend on its economic condition. The energy and supply shortages caused by the Iran conflict may heavily impact the European economy. If peace is not promptly restored, Europe’s economic situation could worsen. Ricardo Alcaro, an expert at the Rome-based International Affairs Institute, stated that the ongoing bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz poses a major challenge to global energy supply. This route accounts for 20 percent of global energy transit and the tension there suggests Iran could create a major threat to Europe, similar to Ukraine. Alcaro, who researches Europe and Iran, added, “The war in Ukraine remains Europe’s primary front, but the Iran conflict cannot be underestimated. It seriously affects Europe’s main priority—its ability to support Ukraine.”
