October 9, Kathmandu — The United States has been deploying its most advanced military forces in its conflict against Iran. US officials claim that Iran’s conventional military capabilities have been significantly degraded. However, eight months of stalled progress have revealed another reality. A relatively weakened Iran is leveraging drones, missiles, and other asymmetric tactics to exert pressure on US military assets. A recent example is RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom. Following intelligence reports of a potential Iranian drone attack, the US withdrew nearly a dozen B-1B Lancer bombers from the base on October 4. US officials, speaking to Reuters and other media, cited the threat of a complex drone attack as the reason for the withdrawal. However, one point must be emphasized: to date, Iran has not launched any attacks on RAF Fairford, nor has its involvement in any planned attacks been publicly confirmed. British police have arrested seven individuals in connection with the incident, while Iran denies any involvement.
Why were 12 B-1 bombers suddenly removed? RAF Fairford is a critical base for American heavy bombers in Europe. Operational since World War II, it continues to serve as a staging ground for US long-range bomber missions. On the night of September 27, three white vans were spotted near the airbase, leading British police to detain five individuals. Petrol containers were found in the vehicles, but no drones, explosives, or weapons were discovered. Additional arrests followed. Meanwhile, US officials disclosed that intelligence sources warned of potential drone attacks targeting the aircraft at the base. Subsequently, approximately 12 B-1 bombers were returned to the US. President Donald Trump acknowledged the potential threat but stated that removing the aircraft would not degrade US military strength. The US European Command noted that bombers such as the B-1, B-2, and B-52 could launch attacks globally from US soil. However, operating from the UK to Iran requires thousands of miles of flight, consuming considerable time and fuel.
Security experts view the removal of bombers from Fairford as a limited yet symbolic success for Iran, but not the end of US military options. Iranian attacks on American bases in the Gulf are not isolated. Since the US and Israel initiated military actions against Iran on February 28, Tehran has launched missile and drone strikes against American military installations across the Middle East. US forces stationed in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have been targeted. Among the deadliest was an Iranian drone strike on March 1 at the Tactical Operations Center in Kuwait’s Port Shuaiba, killing six American soldiers and injuring dozens. This center was located in a civilian port area rather than within a military base.
An investigation by AP revealed that some US military officials had warned of drone attack risks beforehand and highlighted insufficient anti-drone defenses at the site. The US Navy’s Fifth Fleet facilities in Bahrain have endured Iranian assaults, along with other American installations like Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, experiencing attacks during various stages of the conflict. Following significant damage early in the conflict, reports indicated that US troops were temporarily relocated to hotels, offices, and other venues due to intensified Iranian attacks. According to the New York Times, many of the 13 major US bases in the Middle East faced challenging living and working conditions after repeated strikes, with Kuwait suffering particularly severe damage.
Another security concern emerged when Iranian Revolutionary Guard-affiliated entities urged local populations to report locations of US personnel. While American troops were present in many hotels, Iran has not been confirmed to have targeted all of these sites. Human Rights Watch confirmed attacks on hotels and civilian buildings in the Gulf region, including Bahrain, but has not conclusively proven that all targeted locations were military bases or housed US forces. Iranian drone strikes have not been confined to major US military hubs. According to a July Reuters investigation, Iranian drones struck at least two CIA-related sites in March—one located at the American embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and another in eastern Iraq. The Riyadh attack reportedly caused no human casualties. These incidents have further complicated US intelligence efforts to identify Iranian drone targets.
Concerns Raised by Ukraine’s ‘Spiders Web’ Operation The RAF Fairford incident has reignited fears among US officials of a drone attack akin to Ukraine’s 2025 “Spiders Web” operation against Russia. In that campaign, small drones were deployed deep into Russian territory to launch close-range attacks on Russian military aircraft, significantly altering conventional military thinking. Whereas it was once considered sufficient to keep high-tech aircraft beyond missile reach, the ability to covertly transport small drones via vehicles or other means close to targets has rendered long-distance safety margins insufficient. Despite no drones or explosives being found in vehicles associated with those arrested at Fairford, indicating the attack had not reached its final stage, the US side cited the significant potential threat as justification for avoiding risk by withdrawing the aircraft.
Iran Weakened but Threat Remains US President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have claimed substantial damage to Iran’s navy, air force, air defense systems, and military-industrial capacity. However, these are American assertions and independent verification of the collapse of Iran’s military capabilities is lacking. While Iran has sustained heavy losses in conventional military strength, it continues to pressure US and allied forces through drones, missiles, naval attacks, and other asymmetric methods. This evolving dynamic poses a new challenge for Washington. A comparatively weaker adversary can use inexpensive drones to keep multi-million-dollar aircraft and large military bases on constant alert.
Challenges in the Strait of Hormuz Iran’s strategic pressure extends beyond land. Attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have raised questions about US maritime security capabilities. In July, some shipping companies rejected the use of secure routes coordinated with the US military. Maritime security officials reported difficulties ensuring safe vessel passage. Reuters noted that as of October 6, the number of commodity ships passing through Hormuz had fallen to its lowest level in under two months. Crude oil flow remains below pre-war levels. This indicates that Iran’s asymmetric tactics may present a more enduring challenge to the US than its weakening conventional military capabilities alone.
Pentagon Reviewing Gulf Bases A further sign of likely long-term change in US military strategy is the ongoing review within the Pentagon. A publicly released report in August confirmed that the Pentagon is reassessing the character and size of US military presence in the Persian Gulf. Discussions include whether to rebuild bases damaged by Iranian attacks or to relocate some equipment and troops westward. There is also consideration of moving some military assets toward the Red Sea region near Jordan, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. However, no formal decisions have been made. Establishing new or expanded bases will require budget approval, host-nation consent, and support from the US Congress.
New Massive Military Base Planned Domestically On September 30, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the “Next Great American Base” project. This plan envisions the construction of a new, state-of-the-art, self-sustaining military base within the United States, capable of housing 15,000 to 25,000 soldiers. The facility would incorporate its own power generation, modern air defenses, and cutting-edge technologies. However, this base is not announced as a direct replacement for the damaged bases in the Middle East. Thus, it would be inaccurate to conclude that the US is withdrawing its Middle East bases due to Iranian attacks and replacing them with domestic ones. Rather, both developments indicate a broader shift: protecting large permanent bases during an era of advanced drones, missiles, and cyber threats has become an increasingly critical concern for US military planners.
Did Iran Force a US Pullback? The withdrawal of 12 B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford and the relocation of troops from damaged Gulf bases do not signal outright American defeat. The US maintains a significant military presence throughout the Middle East and surrounding regions, including aircraft carriers, fighter jets, long-range bombers, and missile systems. US officials have emphasized that bombers including the B-1 can launch strikes on Iran from US territory. Yet, despite claims of Iran’s conventional military decline, Tehran continues to impact US military planning through drones, missiles, and asymmetric means. The bomber withdrawal at Fairford exemplifies this challenge. The key question arising from this conflict is not whether the US is stronger militarily than Iran—clearly it is—but how effectively it can protect expensive aircraft, troops, and large permanent bases worldwide against inexpensive drones, missiles, and asymmetric attacks. Finding answers to this question remains a daunting task for the United States.
